The Milwaukee Bucks (11-8) travel to “Mile High City” to play the Denver Nuggets (9-9) Friday. Tip-off from Ball Arena is set for 9 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Bucks vs. Nuggets odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
Milwaukee is the winner of five in a row. However, none of those victories came against teams with a winning record and the Bucks have only covered in two of those games. The Bucks are 8-11 ATS and 5-14 O/U with the ninth-best net rating (plus-2.4).
Denver is the loser of five in a row (0-5 ATS), but, reigning MVP Nikola Jokic has been sidelined with a wrist injury for three of those games. The Nuggets are 7-11 ATS and 7-11 O/U with the 20th-best net rating (minus-0.5).
These teams split last year’s season series 1-1 with the road team winning and covering both games with both sides of the total cashing.
Bucks at Nuggets odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:45 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Bucks -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Nuggets +133 (bet $100 to win $133)
- Against the spread (ATS): Bucks -3.5 (-115) | Nuggets +3.5 (-107)
- Over/Under (O/U): 213.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Bucks at Nuggets key injuries
Bucks
- C Brook Lopez (back) out
- SG Donte DiVincenzo (ankle) out
Nuggets
- C Nikola Jokic (wrist) questionable
- PG Jamal Murray (knee) out
- SF Michael Porter Jr. (back) out
Bucks at Nuggets odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Bucks 110, Nuggets 101
Money line
“LEAN” to the BUCKS (-165) because there’s a chance Jokic doesn’t play but if he does then I’d rather need a Milwaukee straight-up victory than lay the points.
Milwaukee’s five-game win streak coincides with the return of two-time All-Star F Khris Middleton. The Bucks are much healthier and trending in a far better direction than the Nuggets at the moment.
Furthermore, two of the Bucks Big 3 (Middleton and big Giannis Antetokounmpo) are in the top-10 of isolation offensive frequency. Denver ranks dead-last in defensive efficiency against isolation offense.
The key to Milwaukee’s five-game win streak has been its top-ranked defensive efficiency, and with two of Denver’s best shot creators sidelined with injury, the Bucks’ should smother the Nuggets.
According to ShotQuality.com, Milwaukee shoots the fifth-highest frequency of catch-and-shoot 3-pointers and the eighth-highest frequency of off-the-dribble 3-pointers.
The Bucks will be facing a Denver squad that ranks 21st in adjusted shot quality vs. off-the-dribble 3-pointers and dead-last vs. catch-and-shoot 3-pointers.
Against the spread
“LEAN” to the BUCKS -3.5 (-115) only because we’d be getting the best of the number if Jokic misses Friday’s game but the worst of the number if he plays. That said, Milwaukee should win by margin, either way, I just feel stronger about betting the Bucks outright instead.
Over/Under
“LEAN” to the UNDER 213.5 (-110) because these teams have a combined 12-26 O/U record yet roughly 90% of the action is on the Over, according to the Yahoo! Sports app.
There’s a lot of offensive firepower on the floor, but both teams like to play through the post, and Milwaukee’s defense has been dominant in recent weeks.
There are two things that worry me about the Under in Bucks-Nuggets. First, the likelihood of Milwaukee role players knocking down 3-pointers off of Giannis and Middleton isolation plays. Second, the Bucks rank fourth in transition offensive frequency.
If Milwaukee pushes the pace and these teams engage in a 3-point shootout, our UNDER 213.5 (-110) could be trash.
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