The Denver Nuggets (9-8) travel to the Rose City Tuesday to play the Portland Trail Blazers (9-8) in a 10 p.m. ET game at Moda Center. Below, we look at the Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
The Nuggets enter on a four-game losing skid (0-4 ATS), the last two without reigning MVP C Nikola Jokic. This current losing stretch followed a five-game winning streak. Denver’s last victory came against Portland Nov. 14.
Denver is 7-10 ATS, 6-11 O/U and is tied with Portland for the 15th-ranked net rating (plus-0.5).
The Trail Blazers have won four of their past five games including three straight home victories over the Toronto Raptors, Chicago Bulls and Philadelphia 76ers.
Portland is 7-9-1 ATS and 8-9 O/U and is tied with Denver with a plus-0.5 net rating (ranked 15th).
The Nuggets crushed the Trail Blazers 124-95 in their first meeting of the season. Denver also defeated Portland 4-2 in a best-of-seven Western Conference first-round playoff series last season.
Nuggets at Trail Blazers odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:27 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Nuggets +205 (bet $100 to win $205) | Trail Blazers -260 (bet $260 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Nuggets +6.5 (-115) | Trail Blazers -6.5 (-107)
- Over/Under (O/U): 213.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
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Nuggets at Trail Blazers key injuries
Nuggets
- C Nikola Jokic (wrist) questionable
- SF Michael Porter Jr. (back) out
- PG Jamal Murray (knee) out
- PG Bones Hyland (ankle) out
- PF Zeke Nnaji (ankle) out
Trail Blazers
- None
Nuggets at Trail Blazers odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Trail Blazers 117, Nuggets 104
Money line
PASS since Portland (-240) is the right side here but is too expensive in this spot. I wouldn’t lay -240 with any NBA regular-season favorite anyhow.
Against the spread
BET 1 unit on the TRAIL BLAZERS -6.5 (-1107) because they play much better at home and stylistically match up well vs. this current version of the Nuggets.
Portland runs the sixth-highest frequency of pick-and-roll action through the ball handler and has the fifth-highest efficiency. This is a weak spot for a Denver defense that has the eighth-worst defensive efficiency vs. pick-and-roll action through the ball handler.
According to ShotQuality.com, Portland plays the most halfcourt offense while Denver has the worst defensive efficiency in halfcourt basketball. Moreover, the Nuggets play at the second-slowest pace in the NBA, so their halfcourt defense will be tested.
The Trail Blazers are 8-1 at home and are second to only the Golden State Warriors in net points per 100 possessions at home. Also, the Trail Blazers are third in spread differential in home games, according to CleaningTheGlass.com.
However, the Nuggets are 2-5 on the road with a minus-5.9 points per 100 possessions (ranked 20th) and a minus 2.3 spread differential (ranked 22nd), according to CleaningTheGlass.com.
Over/Under
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Over 213.5 (-115) because Portland has the best offensive efficiency at home (according to CleaningTheGlass.com) and Denver’s defensive efficiency dips to 23rd in the NBA while on the road.
On top of that, the Nuggets have gone Over in four of their last five games and the Trail Blazers have gone Over in three of their last four games.
Both teams want to play at a slower pace and Denver’s offense is too reliant on Jokic playing at an MVP-caliber. Denver SF Will Barton is the only other Nugget besides Jokic who can create his own look. I could see this game dying down in the fourth quarter if Portland is up big.
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