The Houston Texans (1-8) meet the AFC South rival Tennessee Titans (8-2) Sunday in Week 11 at Nissan Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Texans vs. Titans odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.
Houston lost eight consecutive games entering its Week 10 bye with the latest being a 17-9 stinker at the Miami Dolphins.
The Texans aren’t good on either side of the ball: Houston ranks 29th in points allowed per game (28.7) and dead-last in points scored per game (14.2). Houston is 4-5 ATS and 4-5 O/U.
Tennessee has won eight of its last nine games including six straight. The Titans picked up a 23-21 victory over the New Orleans Saints in Week 10 but failed to cover as 3-point home favorites. The Titans are 7-3 ATS and 6-4 O/U.
Tennessee has beaten Houston in three straight meetings. Injured Titans RB Derrick Henry ran for more than 200 yards as Tennessee scored at least 35 points in each game.
Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: NFL Week 11 picks and predictions
Texans at Titans odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 11:10 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Texans +340 (bet $100 to win $340) | Titans -475 (bet $475 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Texans +9.5 (-103) | Titans -9.5 (-117)
- Over/Under (O/U): 44.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Texans at Titans key injuries
Texans
- DE Jonathan Greenard (foot) questionable
Titans
- CB Janoris Jenkins (chest) questionable
- RB Jeremy McNichols (concussion) out
- WR Julio Jones (hamstring) IR-out
- TE Geoff Swaim (concussion) out
- RG Nate Davis (concussion) out
- LB David Long (hamstring) out
- LB Rashaan Evans (ankle) out
- LB Bud Dupree (abdomen) out
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Texans at Titans odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Texans 24, Titans 19
Money line
Slight “LEAN” to the TEXANS (+340) for a tiny wager because I “like” Houston to cover the spread and think it can steal this game outright. For the record, Texans +9.5 (-103) is my preferred play so if it’s “either/or” then take Houston plus the points.
There’s value in fading Tennessee in this spot because of the compounding effect of the high-profile game the Titans have played in recently. This idea is validated slightly by Tennessee’s long injury report.
The Titans have beaten five straight playoff teams from last season and three of those games were decided by a field goal or less. I have a hunch the Texans will eliminate a lot of survivor pool entries throughout the football betting world.
Against the spread
BET the TEXANS +9.5 (-103) for 1.25 units. Again, do not bet Houston’s money line instead of the spread. Either bet more on the TEXANS +9.5 (-103) or pass on the money line.
Houston got a little healthier over its bye week and Tennessee’s front seven is ravaged by injuries. QB Tyrod Taylor was able to rest up the hamstring that kept him out of six straight games.
Taylor was atop the NFL in QBR and expected points added per play for quarterbacks through the first six quarters of the season before sustaining his hamstring injury in Week 2.
This is your quintessential fade the market spot. More than 80% of the action is on the Titans according to pregame.com, primarily due to recent success against the cream of the crop.
Sure, on paper, and in reality, Tennessee is a far superior team. However, eight out of 10 sports bettors don’t beat the House. This is the spot where the oddsmakers cash in on the market’s overreactions.
Also see: All Week 11 odds and lines
Over/Under
“LEAN” to the UNDER 44.5 (-112) because of Tennessee’s injuries on offense such as Henry, McNichols and Jones. Also, the weather forecast is predicting rain with winds over 10 mph.
We are seeing some “reverse line movement” in the betting market. Pregame.com says a slight majority of the market is betting the Over but the Texans-Titans total has ticked down from the 45.5-point opener.
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