Clemson (7-3, 5-2 ACC) will try to stay in contention in the ACC’s Atlantic Division in its showdown with No. 10 Wake Forest (9-1, 6-0) on Saturday. Kickoff from Memorial Stadium is set for noon. The game will be televised by ESPN.
Clemson’s defense vs. Wake Forest’s offense: Wake Forest has scored at least 35 points every week. Clemson’s defense hasn’t allowed more than 24 against anyone, and that includes Pittsburgh, a top-5 scoring offense nationally that put just 20 on the Tigers (a pick-six accounted for the Panthers’ seven other points). Wake Forest ranks in the top 50 nationally in points, yards, passing offense and rushing offense. Clemson, meanwhile, ranks in the top 30 in what it allows in each of those categories.
In other words, this is as much of a strength versus strength as you can get.
Wake’s offense is different than anything Clemson has seen with its slow mesh points, which can open up passing lanes over the middle and often create one-on-one matchups on the outside. Receivers A.T. Perry — all 6-foot-5 of him — and Jaquarii Roberson, who’ve combined for a whopping 20 touchdown receptions, have helped the Demon Deacons lead the country in passes of at least 30 yards.
But Clemson’s defense has been as good as any at preventing chunk plays. The Tigers have allowed the fewest of 20 yards or more in the ACC (34) and have allowed just 13 plays of at least 30 years. That’s in part because they’ve been good at disrupting the timing of opposing offenses at times, particularly in the backfield.
The Tigers are averaging 3.2 sacks and 7.5 tackles for loss, both top 15 nationally. Their top cornerback, Andrew Booth (stinger), is also expected to return Saturday after being held out as a precaution last week. He and Mario Goodrich have been arguably the ACC’s best corner tandem, a trend the Tigers will need to continue this weekend.
Clemson has also been the stingiest red-zone defense in the country, allowing just six touchdowns in 24 trips inside the 20-yard line for its opponents this season. Meanwhile, Wake Forest has scored 34 red-zone touchdowns as part of the nation’s seventh-most efficient offense in that part of the field.
You could make the argument the fact Wake Forest will have to deal with as much crowd noise as it has all season as the road team gives Clemson the edge here, but this is too close to call. Advantage: Draw
Clemson’s offense vs. Wake Forest’s defense: If you’re going strictly by the stats, you’d be hard-pressed to figure out who has the edge here, too. Offense has been the catalyst all season for Wake, which is giving up nearly 30 points on average and ranks 82nd or worse out of 130 FBS teams in total yards, passing yards and rushing yards allowed.
For Clemson, defense has been the constant. The Tigers aren’t any better than 83rd nationally in most major offensive statistical categories and have cracked the 20-point mark in regulation just twice in conference play this season.
Adding injury to insult is Clemson’s quarterback situation. D.J. Uiagalelei isn’t 100% as he continues to deal with the sprained knee he sustained against Louisville a couple of weeks back, and his backup, Taisun Phommachanh, is questionable for Saturday after an injury to his throwing shoulder ended his day early against UConn last week.
Wake Forest’s defense is dealing with some injuries of its own. Cornerbacks Caelen Carson and Gavin Holmes didn’t play against N.C. State last week, and their status for Saturday is up in the air. But Clemson is also down its top three receivers with Justyn Ross (foot) now out for what may be the rest of the season.
Clemson’s running game wasn’t anything to write home about against a bad UConn defense last week, averaging just 3.1 yards per carry against the Huskies. The Tigers will get its top two running backs back this week, including leading rusher Will Shipley, as well as guard Will Putnam along the offensive line. That should help a running game going against a Wake Forest defense allowing more than 200 yards on the ground on average.
But it’s hard to envision a scenario where Wake Forest doesn’t load the box in an effort to force Uiagalelei and this passing game for Clemson to beat the Demon Deacons if it can. Wake will still have to prove it can stop a more complete running game from Clemson, but can the Tigers make enough plays through the air to keep the Demon Deacons honest? Advantage: Draw
Special teams: Will Spiers and B.T. Potter, who’s rebounded with six straight made field goals after those three misses against Florida State, continue to be steady in the kicking game for Clemson. But Wake Forest’s Nick Sciba could finish as the sport’s most accurate kicker ever once his collegiate career is over. The senior is 16 of 18 on field goals this season, and his 89% success rate for his career is the third-highest mark in NCAA history.
In the return game, Wake’s Ja’Sir Taylor is averaging more than 26 yards on kick returns this season, including one that went for a 99-yard touchdown. That’s not great news for a Clemson coverage unit that struggled against UConn last week, including a 99-yard touchdown it allowed on the opening kickoff.
Bottom line: Clemson’s defense is the best Wake Forest has seen all season, and the Tigers will once again hold an explosive offense well below its season average in points. The question is can an ailing offense do enough for it to matter?
Prediction: Wake Forest 27, Clemson 22
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