The No. 25 Utah Utes (7-3, 6-1 in Pac-12) hosts the No. 5 Oregon Ducks (9-1, 6-1) Saturday for a conference clash at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Oregon vs. Utah odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.
Rankings courtesy of the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Oregon won its fifth consecutive game Saturday 38-24 over the Washington State Cougars as 13.5-point home favorites. The Ducks are 4-6 ATS and 5-5 O/U with the 63rd-toughest strength of schedule, according to USA Today’s Jeff Sagarin.
Utah has won six of its last seven games including three in a row with the latest being a 38-29 Week 11 victory over the Arizona Wildcats as 24-point road favorites.
Utes LB Devin Lloyd and DE Mika Tafua are first and second in the conference in both tackles for a loss and sacks. Utah is 4-6 ATS and 8-2 O/U with the 36th-toughest strength of schedule, according to Sagarin.
Last year’s Oregon-Utah game was canceled due to COVID. Oregon is 2-1 overall and ATS since hiring head coach Mario Cristobal in 2017. The Utes have beaten the Ducks twice (3-4 ATS) since joining the Pac-12 in 2011.
Oregon at Utah odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 6 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Oregon +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Utah -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Oregon +3.5 (-120) | Utah -3.5 (+100)
- Over/Under (O/U): 59.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Oregon at Utah odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Utah 27, Oregon 24
Money line
PASS because I can only “lean” to Oregon plus the points and am not confident enough to sprinkle on the underdog’s money line in this spot.
Also, since Oregon’s head coach Mario Cristobal took over the football program in 2018, the Ducks have the best winning percentage in Pac-12 vs. conference teams and vs. ranked teams.
Against the spread
“LEAN” to OREGON +3.5 (-120) because I envision this being a coin-flip game so I’ll take 3-and-the-hook with the road dogs. The Ducks have been profitable in this spot during the Cristobal era.
For instance, Oregon is 7-4 ATS vs. ranked teams with a plus-5.4 spread differential since 2018 and has won three straight games outright as a road underdog.
Furthermore, Oregon has higher predicted points added (PPA), third-down conversion rate and red zone scoring rate differentials than Utah. On top of that, both teams like to run the ball, but Utah is worse at defending the run.
The Utes rank 63rd in rush defense PPA, 80th in defensive line yards per snap, 84th in rushing defense explosive rate and 72nd in defensive open field yards.
Conversely, Oregon’s defense ranks 45th in rushing PPA, 45th in line yards per snap, 24th in rush defense explosive rate and ninth in open field yards.
Over/Under
BET the UNDER 59.5 (-112) for 1 unit because this should be a smash-mouth football game with both teams trying to establish the run. Also, this is a “Pros vs. Joe’s” game in the betting market and we can buck all the Over-friendly trends in this matchup.
According to Pregame.com, nearly 90% of the cash wagered is on the Under while roughly 60% of the bets placed are on the Over. Since the money column is the presumed “sharp” side of the market, let’s follow the money.
Lastly, I’d assume most of the market is betting the Over because of the following trends: Oregon has gone Over the total in three of its past four games, Utah has gone Over the total in six straight and the Over has cashed in the last three Oregon-Utah meetings.
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