The Portland Trail Blazers (6-7) meet the Denver Nuggets (8-4) Sunday for an 8 p.m. ET tip-off at Ball Arena. Below, we look at the Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
Portland close out a four-game road swing Sunday having lost the first two but beat the Houston Rockets 104-92 Friday. The Trail Blazers are 5-8 ATS and 5-8 O/U with the 12th-best net rating (plus-1.8).
Denver has won four consecutive games, all at home, with the latest being a 105-96 victory over the Atlanta Hawks Friday as a 3.5-point favorite. The Nuggets are 6-6 ATS and 2-10 O/U with the eighth-best net rating (plus-3.5).
The Nuggets dropped the first game of their first-round Western Conference series last postseason but beat the Trail Blazers in six games. Denver won the regular-season series against Portland last year 2-1 but didn’t cover in a single game.
Trail Blazers at Nuggets odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:51 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Trail Blazers +210 (bet $100 to win $210) | Nuggets -270 (bet $270 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Trail Blazers +6.5 (-112) | Nuggets -6.5 (-108)
- Over/Under (O/U): 208.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
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Trail Blazers at Nuggets key injuries
Trail Blazers
- PG Damian Lillard (abdomen) out
Nuggets
- SF Michael Porter Jr. (back) out
Trail Blazers at Nuggets odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Nuggets 109, Trail Blazers 105
Money line
PASS with a heavy “lean” to the Trail Blazers (+210) because I like Portland plus the points in this spot and generally like “sprinkling” on an underdog’s money line when betting them to cover the spread.
However, I’ll opt of the money line and just take the points with the Trail Blazers because Nuggets big Nikola Jokic dominated Portland in the playoffs last season and Jokic has played even better to start this season than his MVP season last year.
Jokic is leading the NBA in PER, Win Shares per 48 minutes, offensive box plus/minus, defensive box plus/minus and is second in rebounds per game (14.1) and ninth in assist percentage.
Trail Blazers-Nuggets is low-key a rivalry game and I expect Jokic to power his squad over the finish line ahead of Portland Sunday.
Against the spread
BET the TRAIL BLAZERS +6.5 (-112) to fade the overreaction to the absence of Lillard who hasn’t been consistent thus far in Portland first-year head coach Chauncey Billups’ scheme.
According to CleaningTheGlass.com, which removes garbage time from its stat tracking, the Trail Blazers score 10.4 fewer points per 100 possessions when Lillard is on the court. However, last season, Portland scored 5.3 more points per 100 possessions when Lillard was on the court.
Lillard plays a lot of isolation basketball, which when it works, Portland really benefits from. However, when Lillard has an off-shooting night then the Trail Blazers are in trouble.
Especially because Lillard doesn’t bring much on the defensive end of the floor. In fact, Portland’s defensive effective field goal shooting increases by 5.3% when Lillard is on the floor, which is by far higher than any other Trail Blazer starter.
While the loss of Lillard definitely lowers Portland’s performance ceiling for an extended period of time, I still think the value in this spot is with the TRAIL BLAZERS +6.5 (-112).
A perfect example of teams winning despite losing their star player is Denver who beat the Indiana Pacers as 3.5-point home underdogs without Jokic, Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray.
Over/Under
“LEAN” to the OVER 208.5 (-107) for a small wager based on the same logic written above.
A vast majority of the market is betting the Under because of Lillard’s absence according to pregame.com, which has caused the total to steam down from the 217.5-point opener to the current price.
This makes sense based on Lillard’s on/off court stats discussed previously, however, my instinct in sports betting is to fade lopsided markets.
If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.
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