The Philadelphia 76ers (8-5) visit the Indiana Pacers (5-8) Saturday for a 7 p.m. ET tip-off at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Below, we look at the 76ers vs. Pacers odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
Philly lost three straight home games entering Saturday to the Toronto Raptors, Milwaukee Bucks and New York Knicks, all without All-NBA big Joel Embiid. The Sixers are 7-6 ATS and 5-7-1 O/U with the fourth-best net rating (plus-5.1) regardless.
Indiana split its four-game road swing 2-2 overall but covered three of those games including an upset victory at the Utah Jazz as 10.5-point underdogs. The Pacers are 7-6 ATS and 4-9 O/U with the 17th-ranked net rating (plus-0.3).
The Sixers were 2-1 overall and ATS in their regular-season series with the Pacers last year. However, Embiid only played in one of those games, and he dominated, while Simmons played in all three.
76ers at Pacers odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1 p.m. ET.
- Money line: 76ers +133 (bet $100 to win $135) | Pacers -165 (bet $170 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): 76ers +3.5 (-108) | Pacers -3.5 (-112)
- Over/Under (O/U): 214.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
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76ers at Pacers key injuries
76ers
- C Joel Embiid (health and safety protocols) out
- SF Matisse Thybulle (health and safety protocols) out
- PG Ben Simmons (personal) out
Pacers
- SF Caris LeVert (back) questionable
76ers at Pacers odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Pacers 109, 76ers 102
Money line
PASS with a “lean” to the Pacers (-165) because it’s on the fringe of my price range for an NBA regular-season money line favorite.
Indiana’s implied win probability based on the money line is 63% and I think the Pacers win this game two-thirds (67%) of the time. But, I’ll opt to lay the points with Indiana instead.
Against the spread
The absence of Embiid has cratered Philly’s defense and rebounding. Over the past three games, the Sixers rank 22nd in defensive rating and dead-last in rebounding rate.
Also, Philly’s defense is allowing the most second-chance points per game and most fastbreak points per game since Embiid went on the COVID list.
So the Sixers are giving up easy baskets because they are missing their defensive centerpiece and aren’t grabbing boards.
On the other hand, Indiana has the fifth-best effective field goal shooting, scores the sixth-most second-chance points per game and has the seventh-highest offensive rebounding rate.
Finally, the Pacers have played much better at home this season and have rebounded well from a terrible October. Indiana is 3-2 ATS at home with a plus-4.7 spread differential and has the seventh-best net rating in November.
BET the PACERS -3.5 (-112) for 1 unit.
Over/Under
“LEAN” to the UNDER 214.5 (-115) for a small wager if anything at all because I much prefer Indiana’s spread as my favorite play in this game.
That said, both teams play at a bottom-10 pace and Indiana’s defense has improved over the past couple of weeks. Also, Indiana’s massive rebounding edge slows this game down even further.
According to CleaningTheGlass.com, the Pacers have the lowest frequency of transition offense and the second-lowest frequency of transition off of live rebounds. The Pacers are looking to dominate the boards and grind the Sixers down.
However, my hesitancy with the UNDER 214.5 (-115) is the vast majority of the market is on the Under (according to Pregame.com) and we are getting the worst of the number. The 76ers-Pacers total opened at 217.5 and all the action on the Under has steamed the total down to a less playable number.
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