The Denver Nuggets (6-4) host the Indiana Pacers (4-7) Wednesday at Ball Arena for a 9 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Pacers vs. Nuggets odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
Indiana has won three of its past four games (4-0 ATS) with the latest being a 94-91 win at the Sacramento Kings Sunday. The Pacers are 6-5 ATS and 4-7 O/U with the 17th-ranked net rating (-0.6).
Denver has won back-to-back games over the Houston Rockets and Miami Heat after losing a two-game showing at the Memphis Grizzlies Nov. 1-3. The Nuggets are 4-6 ATS and 2-8 O/U with the eighth-best net rating (2.9).
The Nuggets hammered the Pacers by double digits in both regular-season meetings last year. However, Denver’s three leading scorers from those games (Nikola Jokic, Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray) will not be in its lineup Wednesday.
Pacers at Nuggets odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:25 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Pacers -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Nuggets +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
- Against the spread (ATS): Pacers -3.5 (-107) | Nuggets +3.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 204.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
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Pacers at Nuggets key injuries
Pacers
- PG Malcolm Brogdon (illness) probable
- SF T.J. Warren (foot) out
Nuggets
- PG Monte Morris (knee) probable
- C Nikola Jokic (suspension) out
- PF Michael Porter Jr. (back) out
Pacers at Nuggets odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Pacers 111, Nuggets 99
Money line
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Pacers (-155) because it’s on the fringe of my price range but I’m confident enough in Indiana here to lay the points.
The fact of the matter is the Pacers are better than their record indicates. For instance, according to ShotQuality.com, Indiana should have a 6-5 overall record based on its adjusted shot quality differential.
Also, the Pacers have the third-worst win differential based on their net efficiency, according to CleaningTheGlass.com. Furthermore, Indiana has the fourth-best effective field goal shooting (eFG%). The Pacers are the only team in the top-12 of eFG% that has a losing record.
Against the spread
BET the PACERS -3.5 (-107) for 1 unit even though it’s an ultra-square play. A majority of the bets are on Indiana but most of the money is on Denver (according to Pregame.com). So, presumably, the “wiseguys” like the Nuggets in this spot.
Theoretically, all of Denver’s injuries are accurately accounted for in the line. But, I just don’t buy that. Jokic leads the NBA in Win Shares per 48, Value Over Replacement Player (VORP), offensive box plus/minus and defensive box plus/minus.
Moreover, Indiana has no reason to look past Denver in this spot. The Pacers are 12th right now in the East and have found their groove in the last four games.
Maybe it’s square, but I’m fading the team missing the NBA’s MVP and backing a PACERS -3.5 (-107) that should have more wins.
Over/Under
PASS because Jokic is the focal point of Denver’s scheme on both ends of the floor. I cannot get a grasp on if the Nuggets’ offense or defense will be more affected by Jokic’s absence.
Furthermore, while the Under feels more likely, we’d be getting the worst of the number. The Pacers-Nuggets total opened at 213.5 but has plummeted when Jokic’s one-game suspension was announced.
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