Clemson vs. Louisville: Who has the edge?

Clemson (5-3, 4-2 ACC) will head to Derby City on Saturday to take on Louisville (4-4, 2-3) in its final ACC road game. Kickoff from Cardinal Stadium is set for 7:30 p.m. The game will be televised by the ACC Network.

Clemson’s defense vs. Louisville’s offense: Clemson had another solid showing on defense against Florida State, holding the Seminoles to 13 points (FSU scored a defensive touchdown in the Tigers’ 30-20 win) while bottling up one of the nation’s top rushing attacks. FSU entered last week’s game running for more than 230 yards per game, but the Tigers held the Seminoles to 65 yards on the ground and just 1.9 per carry.

Clemson’s run defense now ranks 21st nationally (113 yards allowed per game), which is notable considering the offense it’s about the face. With dual-threat quarterback Malik Cunningham at the controls, Louisville has hit its stride on the ground with more than 200 rushing yards in four straight games. The Cardinals aren’t exactly a slouch throwing the ball either. Their 246 yards per game through the air rank 56th in the FBS.

But that’s how the Tigers want to force Cunningham to beat them if he can. Because Clemson doesn’t want Cunningham, who’s averaging 104 rushing yards the last two weeks and is tied for the ACC lead in rushing touchdowns (13), to get going on the ground

Clemson also forced Syracuse’s Garrett Shrader and FSU’s Jordan Travis to try to beat the Tigers throwing, holding those normally fleet-footed quarterbacks to just 2 net rushing yards. Neither could do it. Advantage: Clemson

Clemson’s offense vs. Louisville’s defense: Has Clemson’s offense turned a corner? The Tigers finally broke the 20-point barrier (in regulation) against an FBS opponent last week and had plenty of chances for more, making eight trips into FSU territory.

The Tigers are keeping drives alive more consistently behind a running game that continues to progress. Clemson is averaging more than 174 rushing yards over its last four games and 4.7 yards per carry during that span, which is 1.7 yards more on average than the Tigers did through their first three FBS games. More impressively, they’ve done it with pieces that continue to move along the offensive line and in the backfield, though leading rusher Kobe Pace is set to return after missing last week’s game because of COVID-19 protocols.

The passing game is still inconsistent. Receivers have caught the ball more consistently of late, but D.J. Uiagalelei’s decision-making still leaves much to be desired at times, which has contributed to four of the five turnovers Clemson has committed in the last two games.

Clemson may also have another starting combination up front this week with Mason Trotter (unspecified) and Will Putnam (ankle) likely being game-time decisions with injuries, but Louisville ranks in the bottom half of the ACC in points allowed (27.1 per game). The Cardinals haven’t been bad against the run, though, allowing 134 yards a game on the ground.

Like most defenses, Louisville has performed better at home, yielding just 21.5 points on average in the four games it’s played at Cardinal Stadium. Meanwhile, Clemson’s offense has struggled the most on the road. The Tigers have yet to score more than 17 regulation points away from home. Advantage: Draw

Special teams: Clemson has beens solid most of the season in this facet of the game, but the Tigers are coming off their most consistent game, particularly in the kicking game.

B.T. Potter entered last week’s game 7 of 8 on field goals this season before missing three of his four attempts against FSU, which helped the Seminoles hang around. Clemson coach Dabo Swinney chalked it up to an uncharacteristically bad night for the senior, and until it becomes a pattern, one of the ACC’s most consistent placekickers deserves the benefit of the doubt.

Meanwhile, Louisville’s James Turner is 9 of 12 on field goals. Both teams have been solid in the punting department with each averaging more than 42.8 yards per punt.

Braden Smith might have given the Cardinals the edge here if he was healthy. The Cardinals’ return man had a 49-yard punt return for a touchdown earlier in the season, helping Louisville rank in the top 25 nationally in punt return average (12.7). Smith is done for the rest of the season with an injury, but his replacement, Jordan Watkins (11.8 yards per return), has filled in adequately. Advantage: Draw

Bottom line: This figures to be another game for Clemson that could go either way. But the Tigers have come up with the right scheme to take away the legs of all the dual-threat quarterbacks it’s already faced, so there’s no reason to think they can’t do the same to Cunningham. If the offense cures its recent turnover ailment, the Tigers should put themselves in position to win this one.

Prediction: Clemson 21, Louisville 16