The Wisconsin Badgers (5-3, 3-2 in Big Ten) drop by SHI Stadium Saturday for a 3:30 p.m. ET tussle with the conference co-tenant Rutgers Scarlet Knights (4-4, 1-4). Below, we look at the Wisconsin vs. Rutgers odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.
After losing three of its first four games, Wisconsin has rattled off four consecutive victories (3-1 against the spread), including a 27-7 beatdown of the No. 16 Iowa Hawkeyes as 3-point home favorites last weekend.
Wisconsin’s defense allows the fewest yards per play and second-fewest points per game in the Big Ten. The Badgers are 4-4 ATS and 3-5 Over/Under (O/U).
Rutgers snapped a four-game conference losing skid by beating the Illinois Fighting Illini 20-14 as 1.5-point road favorites in Week 9. The Scarlet Knights rank 105th or worse in points per play, third-down conversion rate, and red zone scoring rate.
Rutgers is 5-3 ATS and 3-5 O/U.
Wisconsin at Rutgers odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:45 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Wisconsin -550 (bet $550 to win $100) | Rutgers +400 (bet $100 to win $400)
- Against the spread (ATS): Wisconsin -12.5 (-115) | Rutgers +12.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 37.5 (O: -117 | U: -103)
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Wisconsin at Rutgers odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Wisconsin 20, Rutgers 16
Money line
PASS even though the Badgers should win this game because Wisconsin (-5500) is way out of my price range for a favorite in a conference game.
Even though I’m on Rutgers plus the points, I cannot back the Scarlet Knights to pull off an upset because Wisconsin has it rolling after struggling to start the year.
Against the spread
BET RUTGERS +12.5 (-105) for 1 unit because the Scarlet Knights have the run defense and are good enough situationally to keep this game inside of a 10-point margin.
For instance, Wisconsin runs the ball at the fifth-highest volume in the nation. But, Rutgers’ defense ranks top-30 in rushing predicted points added (PPA), rushing success rate and line yards per snap.
Furthermore, if Rutgers can hold Wisconsin to 3rd-and-longs then it’ll get off the field fast. Rutgers has the ninth-best 3rd-down defense while Wisconsin is 123rd in 3rd-down conversion rate.
Also, Rutgers is 25th in red zone defense so Wisconsin may settle for field goals on long drives.
Over/Under
“LEAN” to the UNDER 37.5 (-103) for a small wager if at all because I prefer the Rutgers’ side more than the total in this contest. However, both offenses love to run the ball and each team has a stout rush defense.
In fact, Wisconsin has the best defensive efficiency in the Big Ten and Rutgers has one of the least efficient offenses in the conference.
Also, we can fade the public, which is backing the Over presumably based on the logic of “this total is too low”. According to Pregame.com, roughly 65 percent of the cash is on the Over but the total hasn’t budged from the opener.
On top of that, Wisconsin has played to the Under in seven of its past nine conference games and Rutgers has played to the Under in seven of its past eight Big Ten contests.
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