We’re finally into November, rounding the corner and heading for home. We have just three full weeks to go before the Thanksgiving holiday. Below, we look at the best bets for three small-school college football winners in Week 10, with expert college football picks and predictions.
Every week we target three smaller schools that are good bets to cover the spread and win big money – it doesn’t really matter the size of the school, it’s winners that matter.
This weekend we’ll focus on a trio games from Conference USA, the Mountain West and the Sun Belt Conferences.
Small-school college football best bets of Week 10
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 7:45 a.m. ET.
North Texas -4.5 (-108) at Southern Miss (Saturday at 3 p.m. ET)
North Texas (2-6, 1-3) travel to Hattiesburg, Miss., to battle Southern Miss (1-7, 0-4). The Mean Green showed some signs of life last week with a road victory against Rice by a 30-24 score in overtime, and the Mean Green have posted a 4-1 ATS mark across the past five outings.
UNT’s offense has picked up the pace with 21 or more points in each of the past four outings, averaging 28.0 PPG during the span. Defense has been the undoing of the Mean Green, allowing 35 or more points in five of the past seven.
While defense has been terrible for UNT, Southern Miss isn’t likely to hurt them. The Golden Eagles have scored 10, 0, 13, 19, 14 and 9 in the previous six outings, and USM has cashed the Under in four straight, and seven of eight games overall. UNT and the Under might be a nice combination.
Rankings courtesy of the AFCA Coaches Poll, powered by USA TODAY Sports.
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UL Monroe +3.5 (-115) at Texas State (Saturday at 3 p.m. ET)
UL Monroe (4-4, 2-3 Sun Belt) hurt me last week at App State, but a good bettor won’t hold a grudge and will go right back to the well if the situation is right. ULM fumbled at the goal line while attempting a backdoor cover, handing Warhawks’ ticket holders a bad beat.
ULM has scored 28 or more points in each of the past three weeks, hitting the Over in five consecutive outings. On the flip side, Texas State (2-6, 1-3) was bludgeoned 45-0 at Louisiana last week, and it has lost three in a row while failing to cover the past two.
The road team has covered the past five meetings in this series, and ULM is going to keep that trend going against a Bobcats team not playing very well of late.
UNLV at New Mexico -1.5 (-115) (Saturday at 7 p.m. ET)
UNLV (0-8, 0-4 Mountain West) heads to the ABQ looking for its first win of the season against New Mexico (3-5, 1-3). The Lobos are still very much alive for a bowl bid, and they cannot afford a slip-up in a very winnable game at home if it wishes to see the postseason.
UNM went to Wyoming two weeks ago and picked up a 14-3 win. On the surface, that’s not terribly impressive, especially on offense. But the defensive effort was great, especially after allowing 31 or more points in the previous three games. It was also New Mexico’s first cover after going 0-7 ATS in the first seven outings.
The Lobos have struggled on offense, and that’s the biggest concern here. UNM is averaging 8.5 PPG across the past six games. But UNLV is allowed 36.0 PPG, ranking 121st out of 130 FBS teams, and if the Lobos are going to find their offense, it will be against the Rebels.
Last week’s recap
It was a disastrous Week 9 as nothing went well in the mid-afternoon window of games. The closest loss was Louisiana Tech, although it lost outright against a bad Old Dominion side. UL Monroe +27.5 narrow missed a cover at Appalachian State, and you might have caught this one on the popular segment “Bad Beats”. A loss is a loss, though. And Charlotte was waffled 45-13 at Western Kentucky, not even coming close.
Let’s build that bankroll back up this week!
Last Week: 0-3
Season Total: 15-12
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