The Denver Nuggets (4-3) meet the Memphis Grizzlies (4-3) Wednesday for the second of their two-game miniseries at FedExForum. Tip-off is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Nuggets vs. Grizzlies odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
Memphis hammered Denver 106-97 as a 1.5-point home underdog in their first meeting Monday.
The Grizzlies outshot the Nuggets 38.2-23.7% from behind the arc and dominated the paint. In fact, Memphis outrebounded Denver 55-40 and outscored the Nuggets 58-40 in the paint.
Both teams are 2-2 straight-up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) and 1-3 Over/Under (O/U) in their last four games. Denver is 3-2 SU in the last five meetings with Memphis but just 1-4 ATS.
Nuggets at Grizzlies odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:18 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Nuggets -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Grizzlies -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Nuggets +1.5 (-105) | Grizzlies -1.5 (-120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 215.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Nuggets at Grizzlies key injuries
Nuggets
- PG Jamal Murray (knee) out
Grizzlies
- SG Dillon Brooks (hand) out
Nuggets at Grizzlies odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Nuggets 116, Grizzlies 110
Money line
BET the NUGGETS (-115) for 1 unit based on the zig-zag theory since Denver should knock down more outside jumpers and can easily correct the mistakes that led to Memphis’s double-digit victory Monday.
It’s hard to beat the same team in consecutive games in the NBA and typically we’ll see the losing team bounce back.
Recent examples include the Orlando Magic responding to a 121-94 drubbing by the New York Knicks in their second game of the season by winning their rematch two nights later.
I expect the Nuggets to ramp up the effort after getting killed on the glass by the Grizzlies Monday. Denver head coach Michael Malone calling out his team’s weak rebounding effort is a straightforward coaching strategy.
However, something Malone needs to focus on is keeping guard Ja Morant out of the paint. Morant scored 22 of his 26 points in the paint against Denver Monday. If the Nuggets can protect the paint and force the Grizzlies to make contested 2-pointers, their defense should be in good shape.
Finally, Denver shot terribly from 3-point land Monday and is due for a bounce-back shooting performance. Memphis has the second-worst defensive 3-point percentage, allows the 19th-highest volume of 3-point attempts and is 23rd in adjusted defensive shot quality according to ShotQuality.com.
Against the spread
PASS since the Nuggets +1.5 (-105) doesn’t provide much insurance for our Denver money line wager. If the Nuggets’ spread gets to 2.5 or higher then I’d take the points with Denver and sprinkle a lighter wager on the money line.
Over/Under
“LEAN” to the OVER 215.5 (-108) for a small wager only, because Unders have been much more profitable in the NBA thus far and a vast majority of the market is backing the Over. I don’t like following a crowd of people in sports betting.
I’m more-or-less banking on the zig-zag theory for the Nuggets-Timberwolves total as well.
The market isn’t overreacting to Monday’s Nuggets-Timberwolves game going Under the total by 12.5 points hence the one-way action on the Over. In fact, sportsbooks dropped the total for Wednesday’s meeting to 212.5 on the opener but the market steamed it right back up.
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