The Colorado Buffaloes opened as 28-point underdogs against the spread in their matchup on the road against the Oregon Ducks this weekend.
As we wrote earlier this week, that line quickly moved down off the opener all the way to as low as 23.5 on the Tipico Sportsbook.
After Nate Landman was ruled “likely” out on Wednesday, the line settled at 24.5 where it currently sits now on Tipico.
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to note that 24 is a key number in football. If you are placing money on Oregon, you would much rather be laying 23.5 than 24.5 just based on a pure comfort standpoint.
I don’t think it will matter in this game as Oregon will win in a rout. The last time these two teams played was in 2019 when Colorado was a better team and Oregon was just beginning to peak. The Ducks won 45-3 and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar score on Saturday.
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My biggest worry for the Buffaloes is the matchup with Oregon’s defensive line and linebackers. I just don’t see how CU can possibly slow them as its offensive line has been abysmal throughout the season. Yes, Colorado fired the offensive line coach to try to reignite the hog mollies up front. But if that was going to make an impact, it’s hard for that to happen during the first week against the best pass rusher in the country.
Kayvon Thibodeaux will get to do whatever he wants in this football game and I don’t see how Colorado will be able to move the football when they’ve shown an inability to do so all season long.
On the defensive side of the ball, Colorado has been very stout through the middle so far this season. Mostly due to Landman and with him out, Oregon should be able to have its way with the CU defense.
Landman out is a bigger deal than the adjustment the sportsbooks made with him being out. When he went out against Cal last week, the Bears drove right down the field late in the first half. When he went out last season with the torn Achilles, Colorado became a completely different football team.
I also think Oregon will be able to use its speed at the skill positions to expose CU out on the edge.
I already played Oregon -24. I would also play Oregon first half at -14 or less. And I would consider the Colorado team total Under anything at 10.5 or above.
All Betting Lines are Courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook
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