An already thin Green Bay Packers wide receiver corps will be even lighter for Thursday night’s showdown against the Arizona Cardinals with Davante Adams and Allen Lazard ruled out. Both were placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list earlier this week.
Their absences means Aaron Rodgers will attempt to keep up with one of the NFL’s best passing offenses, and the league’s only remaining undefeated team, without his top three receivers (Marquez Valdes-Scantling is not expected to be activated from injured reserve prior to the game, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter). It also means other players will have to step up in their place, or fail to do so, which creates an array of outcomes regarding final stats and prop bets.
Packers are not expected to activate Marquez Valdez-Scantling before tonight’s game vs. Arizona, giving him more time to recover from his hamstring injury, per source. So no Davante Adams, Allen Lazard nor MVS.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 28, 2021
Randall Cobb should benefit the most from those players being out. Operating out of the slot, he’s Green Bay’s most-targeted wide receiver of those who will be active Thursday. Where he lines up shouldn’t change, but the chemistry he has with Rodgers as longtime teammates should give him an edge in boosting the two catches on 2.6 targets per game he’s seeing this year. With the Packers likely playing from behind, the over 4.5 receptions for Cobb at -114 odds on Tipico Sportsbook is in play. His season high is five catches, which included two touchdowns, in Week 4 against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
That same logic may not necessarily apply to Green Bay’s big breakout player of a season ago, tight end Robert Tonyan, however. While he’s third on the team in targets with 25, that comes with just a 60 percent catch rate, one of the team’s lowest. He and Rodgers haven’t connected with the same efficiency as a season ago and a matchup against a Cardinals defense that has allowed the fewest yards and sixth-fewest receptions to tight ends won’t help their cause. Under 3.5 receptions for Tonyan, who only averages that many targets a game, is pretty good value at +128 odds.
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So who else will Rodgers throw to? Wideouts Equanimeous St. Brown and Amari Rodgers should receive opportunities to expand their roles in the offense. But workhorse back, and Green Bay’s second most-targeted receiver, Aaron Jones is also still in the backfield. If the Packers want to keep Kyler Murray’s unit off the field, they’ll need to feed him the ball early and often.
The Cardinals give up a whopping 5.0 yards per carry to opposing running backs, and stopping Jones won’t be any easier with J.J. Watt being ruled out for the foreseeable future. Over 64.5 rushing yards at -114 odds will be in play for Jones, who has eclipsed that number four times in seven games this season.
Finally, looking at the other side of the ball, with Green Bay’s depleted offense not expected to run up the score much but always capable of keeping drives alive with Rodgers under center, there’s good value on under 276.5 passing yards for Kyler Murray at +100 odds. He hasn’t thrown for that many yards in four straight games. In a contest where he won’t be forced to score a lot, against a Packers pass defense that allows just 210.6 yards per game, there a chance that becomes five straight.
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