Below, we look at 5 NFL player prop bets for Week 7, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.
With only 12 games Sunday and Monday – the fewest options available to date, we look for the numbers that come across as daring you to take them – usually on big names with followings that have either set the bar too high or too low. This week, we’re making no yardage bets. We’re going Over/Under on volume. These are our picks to put some folding money in your pocket.
Week 7 prop bet picks and predictions
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 3:20 p.m. ET.
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New England Patriots TE Hunter Henry OVER 3.5 receptions (-118)
Henry was an expensive free agent signing by the Patriots (along with fellow TE Jonnu Smith) and got out of the gate very slow. However, he has four or more receptions in three of the last four games, and the only game he didn’t reach that mark was because he was only targeted twice.
The Patriots are facing the New York Jets and Hunter and QB Mac Jones have made strides since these teams met in Week 2. I wouldn’t be shocked if he catches 6 or more, so making four the pay window is more than fine by me.
Los Angeles Rams WR Cooper Cupp OVER 7.5 receptions (-102)
Receptions bets are tough. Those who “caught on” to what was going on in Buffalo last year figured out that, unless they put Stefon Diggs on 8 or more receptions, the house was losing every week. They’re getting to that point with Kupp.
His Over/Under for receptions is steep, however, he has been targeted 10 or more times in every game and has 7 or more receptions in five of them (and 9 catches in three). QB Matthew Stafford is playing the Detroit Lions for the first time since leaving the team last summer and surely wants to make them pay, and who is his best target? Kupp. 7.5 receptions is as high as you could go but I like these odds.
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New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara UNDER 22.5 carries (-123)
I’ve been cashing in on Kamara too often because it took time for those setting the line to realize that he didn’t have Mark Ingram or Latavius Murray as the No. 2 guy splitting time with him. Now the oddsmakers have over-corrected and given him a Derrick Henry-style number.
If you look at a Hall of Famer like Adrian Peterson and ask how many times did he carry 23 times or more? Kamara isn’t built to be a player like Peterson. He’s a 23-touch guy, but it’s ideally 16 carries and 7 receptions. I would take the Under at 20.5 – the extra two are a gift.
Arizona Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins, OVER 5.5 receptions (-143)
The hapless Houston Texans come to town and the Cardinals have the opportunity to drop a 40-burger on them. If you look back on quarterbacks who win the MVP Award, one trait that seems consistent is their stat line. Look at Aaron Rodgers last year. Look at Patrick Mahomes when he won it. Look at Peyton Manning when he won it. Then look at the numbers their best receiver.
The one consistent thing with all of them was if the pass is working, stick with it. Murray is likely going to throw for 300 or more yards before he comes out in the fourth quarter. Hopkins is his most lethal threat and will get his chances to shine. I would have taken this one at 6.5, which helps explain the number.
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