Coming off a 34-0 win over Arizona, the Colorado Buffaloes (2-4) find themselves in an opportunity to earn their third win of the season visiting the California Golden Bears (1-5).
Colorado opened as 10-point underdogs but that did not last long as the line quickly moved down and currently sits at +8.5 on Tipico Sportsbook. The total is 43.5.
The Buffs finally found a groove throwing the football this past weekend as quarterback Brendon Lewis was 12-for-19 for 248 yards and two touchdowns—by far his best game of the season.
CU will need to keep that level of play up as they face a California defense that has been much better against than the run than the pass so far this season. Cal is 10th in the Pac-12 in passing yards allowed to opposing offenses and fourth in rushing yards allowed.
California has been a team that’s much better than their record shows. You typically won’t see a 1-5 team open as a double-digit favorite against an in-conference opponent. Four of their losses this season have been by less than one score.
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The Bears played their best game last week on the road in Eugene where they took the Oregon Ducks to the brink. They weren’t able to pull out the win but they showed they have the ability to compete with any team in the Pac-12.
The Buffaloes, on the other hand, haven’t looked competitive in any Pac-12 game besides the one this past week against Arizona. Colorado still has a lot to prove and the question will be was the Arizona game an anomaly or will that get them the confidence they needed to finish the season strong?
This game is Cal or pass for me and under or pass. Cal has played much better against a tougher schedule this season and I think they will be hungry to get their first FBS win of the season.
It should be a massive test for Colorado’s secondary as the Cal offense has put a lot of trust in senior quarterback Chase Garbers. He’s attempting over 35 passes a game and is playing some of the best football of his career.
Despite being conference foes, the Buffs and the Bears have not faced off since 2018—the game after Mike MacIntyre was fired. The two teams have only played each other 10 times in their history and Colorado has never won in Berkeley.
I believe that will continue this week. I think the best way to play this game with where the line sits now is a 6-point teaser on both the spread and total. That will drop California down to -2.5 (just below a primary football number) and puts the total at Under 50 (just above a primary football number).
All Betting Lines are Courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook
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