Mythbusters: Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs do not have a Cover-2 problem

Teams are playing a ton of two-high coverages against the Kansas City Chiefs. Is that going to be a problem for the offense going forward?

Now that we are six full weeks into the 2021 NFL season, narratives are starting to take shape.

One such narrative is that the Kansas City Chiefs have a problem on offense. Patrick Mahomes to this point has still put up solid numbers, having completed 69% of his passes for 1,887 yards and 18 touchdowns, but these are not the video-game type of numbers we are accustomed to seeing from him.

After all, last year Mahomes posted an Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt of 8.33, which was second in the league. Back in 2019 his ANY/A of 8.38 was again second in the league.

Right now? Mahomes has an ANY/A of 7.35. Still above the league average, but that places him 12th in the NFL.

Beyond that, critics point to his eight interceptions — second-most behind only rookie Zach Wilson — and argue that the Chiefs have a problem in the passing game.

Putting that aside for a moment, once a “problem” is identified, people want to figure out the reasons for the problem. As this narrative began to take shape, a culprit emerged.

Cover 2.

There is evidence to support this position. Take this from the brilliant Seth Walder from ESPN:

This was after Buffalo went into Kansas City and controlled the Chiefs, leading the questions to truly surface. After some more digging:

 

Now, this is from prior to Week 6, but you can see that teams were using Cover 2 and Cover 2 Man against Mahomes and the Chiefs far more often than any other team. As Walder illustrated in this tweet as well:

In many ways, this approach makes sense to use against Kansas City. Keep two safeties deep to help against the weapons, try and keep everything in front of you, and dare Mahomes to become a handoff machine.

As so many ideas do, this has its roots on Friday nights. Go back and watch the Hudl Blitz ’21 defensive coaches roundtable led by Chris Vasseur from last spring. Coach Vass, as a moderator of this roundtable, spoke with a number of high school defensive coordinators and each of them said what they wanted to do pre-snap was to show a two-high look and dare the offense to turn their QB into a spectator.

So when you see these kinds of numbers, a few things happen. When the offense is struggling, and they are seeing a ton of these coverages, it is very easy to see the coverage numbers pointed out by Walder and take things a few steps beyond that point, and argue that the Chiefs have a problem with Cover 2/MOFO coverages and that’s the reason for their struggles.

Not so fast my friend.

When you watch some of these interceptions, even those that have come against Cover 2 or coverages with the middle of the field open, the coverage is not usually the issue.

Take this interception against the Baltimore Ravens from back in Week 2:

On this 3rd and 12 play, the Ravens indeed drop into a two-high, MOFO coverage. But the interception that results is not due to the coverage, but more to the fact that Mahomes is a football-throwing alien who believes there is not a window he cannot challenge, even when he is trying to make the throw under duress and falling down.

Or take this interception, against the Bills from that game where the Chiefs saw a ton of Cover 2 looks:

On this red zone interception the Bills indeed are in a two-high look, but the pick is more a result of a great play from rookie edge defender Gregory Roussseau than anything else.

Now, the bigger point about the Chiefs against these two-high looks remains. They are going to face a ton of it going forward, whether or not the interceptions themselves are due to the coverage. Why?

Because it dares your opponent to take the ball out of your football-throwing alien’s hands and turn him into a spectator. If you are a defensive coordinator, you’re happy any time #15 turns to hand the football off, because then he is not targeting one of the Chiefs’ weapons in the passing game.

Beyond that, this is a Chiefs rushing attack that is not that terrifying at the moment.

This is an offense that, according to Football Outsiders, is second in the league, with a DVOA of 24.4% overall. Their passing DVOA? Fourth in the league with a DVOA of 47.1%. But their run game DVOA checks in at eighth in the league, at -0.9%.

What would you rather face as an opposing defensive coordinator, that pass game or that run game?

So you show them two high, as we see on Friday nights, and dare them to turn Mahomes into a spectator.

Now it becomes incumbent on Andy Reid, Eric Bieniemy and company to find a way to respond. One way? Force them out of those looks by running the football effectively, and making defenses get out of two-high coverages by bringing a safety down to stop the run.

That has yet to happen, perhaps due to a combination of the run game not forcing defenses to respond accordingly or, as is perhaps more likely, the fact that even if Kansas City is running the football well against you, you’d still prefer that to the alternative.

The next option? Execute in the passing game against those concepts.

As mentioned earlier, the coverage numbers illustrated above came prior to the Week 6 games. Well, this weekend the Chiefs faced the Washington Football Team, a defense with some questions that they need to answer. According to charting data from Sports Info Solutions, through Weeks 1 through 5 of the 2021 NFL season, the Football Team faced 64 passing attempts where they were in a MOFO coverage (Cover 0, Cover 2, Cover 2 Man, Cover 4, Cover 6, and Red 2).

In Week 6 against the Chiefs alone, they had 27. The most in the league.

So, teams are going to continue to do this against them.

But here is another little finding. This season the Chiefs have six passing plays on offense with a gain of 15 yards or more, with a throw ten yards or more downfield. That might seem like a rather narrow finding, but I think there is value in looking at throws downfield, as those convey more information about concepts versus coverage. A screen play that breaks for a big gain or a slant route that breaks for a chunk play might not tell us as much.

Of those six plays, four were this past week against Washington.

There was this play, where the Chiefs put Demarcus Robinson, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to the same side of the field, and ran a three-level concept:

You can see how this is set up to attack a two-high structure. Pringle’s vertical route attacks the outside “honey hole,” while Kelce releases to the flat to potentially hold the curl/flat defender. Hill’s route, which Mahomes targets, is a great design. The receiver attacks the linebacker who is retreating to get depth between the safeties, but then Hill breaks to the outside.

Really, all three options are open, but Mahomes targets Hill for a gain of 19.

Or take this example, from before halftime:

This is a mirrored Smash concept, which is certainly not a new offensive design. Look, if I’m writing about something I ran back in the day, we are not treading new ground. But you can see how this concept attacks both sides of the field, with corner routes to stress the outside honey hole. Mahomes hits Byron Pringle on the deep corner route for a big gain.

Then there is this spacing design, which has Kelce attack between the safeties on a deeper route while the rest of the receivers check up on quick curl patterns:

Again, we are not breaking new ground here with these concepts, but the Chiefs found ways to execute against these two-high looks against Washington last week, and something tells me they’ll be able to continue that as the season rolls on.

Mahomes did throw a pair of interceptions against MOFO coverages last week, but again I would posit those turnovers resulted from issues other than the coverage. On one, a pass went right through the hands of the receiver, and on the other there was a botched shotgun snap and Mahomes tried another pass while being tackled, and the throw was intercepted. Not exactly turnovers due to scheme, but rather execution, and faulty offensive execution at that.

So while defenses are likely going to continue this pattern against the Chiefs, dare them to either turn Mahomes into a spectator or try and force Kansas City to go on long drives by keeping route concepts in front of them, it seems the Chiefs are starting to figure out some designs to turn to in the passing game. If last week against Washington is any indication, they’ll be just fine on offense.