In advance of Sunday afternoon’s Chiefs-Washington Football Team game, Chiefs Wire examines the matchup with fantasy football projections for Kansas City players courtesy of our colleagues at The Huddle.
The 2-3 Kansas City Chiefs can’t win two consecutive games, and they lost badly to the Bills, who are now the team to beat in the AFC.
The 2-3 Washington Football Team surrendered over 28 points for the fourth week, and should provide exactly what the Chiefs now need – a solid win. The Washington defense of 2020 never made it to this season, and there’s no better opponent for handing out “get right” games to opposing offenses.
The Chiefs trailed in the second quarter last week and couldn’t produce a comeback versus a motivated Buffalo Bills‘ defense. Clyde Edwards-Helaire was injured during the third quarter to limit the offense even more. The Bills spent the last nine months figuring out how to contain Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill – something they could not do during the AFC Championship Game last January.
Now the Chiefs are in a new situation where they are in the cellar of the AFC West and trail the Los Angeles Chargers by two games plus already lost to them in Week 3. The upcoming schedule is better than most, and the Chiefs will be favored in each, but they rank dead last in points allowed — 163 points / 32.6 per game. They have yet to hold an opponent below 29 points.
Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes comes off his worst performance of the year. He threw for only 272 yards and two touchdowns in a game where they trailed badly in the second half. He still ranks No. 1 with 16 passing touchdowns but already totals six interceptions. He threw only six interceptions in all of 2020 and five in 2019. The passing scheme still centers around Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, but with lesser results in recent weeks.
Patrick Mahomes projection vs. Washington
Fantasy points: 29.5
Passing: 310 yards, 3 TDs
Rushing: 20 yards
Running backs
Clyde Edwards-Helaire turned in over 100 rushing yards for the two previous weeks before injuring his MCL in the loss to the Bills. The expectation is that he’ll take at least three weeks to heal, and he was placed on injured reserve. The prognosis is much better than feared when his leg bent awkwardly beneath him, and he had to be carried from the field. The Chiefs are likely to search for more backfield help that could include a trade for Marlon Mack. But the starting role now goes to Darrel Williams with some third-down help from Jerick McKinnon.
Williams is in his fourth season with the Chiefs but never handled a starter’s workload. He’s never rushed more than 13 times in any game but steps in during a stretch of average defenses. It will be interesting to see if McKinnon sees an increase in pass targets and if he is given any role as a rusher.
Darrel Williams projection vs. Washington
Fantasy points: 13
Rushing: 50 yards, 1 TD
Receiving: 1 rec, 10 yards
Jerick McKinnon projection vs. Washington
Fantasy points: 6
Rushing: 10 yards
Receiving: 3 rec, 20 yards
Wide receivers
Josh Gordon saw his first playing time as a Chief when he caught an 11-yard pass last Sunday. He’s just learning the offense and won’t be a factor for many weeks at the earliest. Mecole Hardman caught a season-high nine passes for 76 yards in the loss to the Bills but rarely totals more than a handful of short catches. Tyreek Hill dominates the pass targets, but he’s faced three good defenses — Ravens, Chargers, and Bills — and failed to score or gain more than 63 yards. He’s blown up for over 180 yards twice but experiences dramatic swings in production from week to week according to the quality of the opposing secondary.
Tyreek Hill projection vs. Washington
Fantasy points: 31
Receiving: 8 rec, 110 yards, 2 TD
Mecole Hardman projection vs. Washington
Fantasy points: 9
Receiving: 4 rec, 50 yards
Byron Pringle projection vs. Washington
Fantasy points: 5
Receiving: 2 rec, 30 yards
Tight ends
Travis Kelce provides the most consistent and productive performances. He’s scored four touchdowns on the year and twice topped 100 yards in a game. Even in the loss to the Bills, Kelce still caught six passes for 57 yards and one score. He’s only had one down game this year, and that was at the Eagles when Tyreek Hill blew up for three touchdowns.
Travis Kelce projection vs. Washington
Fantasy points: 19
Receiving: 6 rec, 70 yards, 1 TD
Match to the defense
The beauty in this matchup is that while the Chiefs are ranked dead last in points allowed (163), the Washington Football Team is ranked No. 31 (155). This matchup should be the highest-scoring game of the weekend. Washington gave up over 280 passing yards and four touchdowns to each of their last three opponents. The Chiefs just gave up a monster game to Josh Allen, but when he played Washington, he was even more productive.
The Chiefs are reeling with a losing record and a terrible defense. This week is a chance for Patrick Mahomes to stay ahead of anything that his defense gives up to Washington. Around 300 passing yards and three touchdowns should be just a baseline for Mahomes this week. They also allowed seven touchdowns to wide receivers and seven different players that topped 90 yards when they played. Tyreek Hill is set up for yet another monster performance. Mecole Hardman has upside as well, though he’s been far less consistent and can always disappoint.
The best aspect of the Washington defense is versus running backs, but Clyde Edwards-Helaire is out, and Darrel Williams takes his turn as the starter. This isn’t a favorable venue to rush the ball, but Jerick McKinnon could succeed if they turn up his volume of targets. While Washington has only allowed two rushing touchdowns for running backs, they’ve given up six receiving scores to the position in just the last three games.
Harrison Butker projection vs. Washington
Fantasy points: 10
Kicking: 2 FG, 4 XP