The Houston Astros and Chicago White Sox continue their best-of-five AL Division Series Sunday at 8:07 p.m. ET at Guaranteed Rate Field. Let’s analyze the lines around the Astros vs. White Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Luis Garcia is the projected starting pitcher for the Astros. He went 11-8 with a 3.30 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 9.7 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 across 155 1/3 IP spanning 28 starts and two relief outings.
- Posted a 2.39 ERA at home and a 4.24 figure on the road.
- Was effective in a June 18 start against the White Sox: 7 IP, 7 hits, 1 ER, 2 BB, 8 K.
RHP Dylan Cease is the projected starter for the White Sox. He went 13-7 with a 3.91 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 12.3 K/9, and 3.7 BB/9 through 165 2/3 IP over 32 starts in the regular season.
- Finished the regular season on a roll, albeit against a weak schedule. Allowed just 1 ER over 14 1/3 IP (with 4 BB, 24 K) across starts against the Texas Rangers, Cleveland Indians and Detroit Tigers.
- Clocked a 3.18 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 85 IP at home.
- Struggled in two regular-season starts against the Astros: 9 IP, 9 ER.
Astros at White Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:30 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Astros +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | White Sox -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Astros +1.5 (-200) | White Sox -1.5 (+160)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Prediction
White Sox 5, Astros 3
Money line (ML)
Houston took five of seven games from Chicago in the regular season, and the Astros are up 2-0 in this playoff series. Houston was a solid run line play in Games 1 and 2, and the Astros covered both. However, with this pitching matchup and the White Sox at home, there is an opportunity to leverage some gravity in this series.
From July 7-Aug. 7, Garcia posted a 13.3 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9. Since then, Garcia’s stuff has leveled off, and he has logged 7.0 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 figures. His ERA over that second stretch has been suppressed by a low home run/fly ball rate (and Garcia is a fly-ball pitcher) and a high left-on-base rate.
Garcia can be average on the road, and Cease has been excellent at home. Due in part to a .309 batting average on balls in play, Cease has some expected-ERA figures that point to better quality than what shows in his surface ERA. Statcast quality-of-contact metrics corroborate that analysis.
Only the San Francisco Giants (54 home wins) won more home games than the Pale Hose (53) in the regular season.
In this yard on this day, TAKE CHICAGO (-125).
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The White Sox can be quite average against ground-ball pitchers. And that’s what Chicago saw in Games 1 and 2 against RHP Lance McCullers and LHP Framber Valdez. The Pale Hose are a much more dangerous offense at home and against fly-ball hurlers.
BACK THE WHITE SOX -1.5 (+160).
Over/Under (O/U)
Game 3 lays out with some crisscrossing trends and signals. Figure just the slightest of leans on the Under, but a PASS is suggested.
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