The St. Louis Cardinals (90-72) head to Dodger Stadium for their National League Wild Card play-in game against the Los Angeles Dodgers (106-56). First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Cardinals vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Dodgers won 4-3.
RHP Adam Wainwright is St. Louis’ projected starter. Wainwright was 17-7 in the regular season with a 3.05 ERA (206 1/3 IP, 70 ER), 1.06 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 across 32 starts.
- Since Sept. 1: 4-0 with a 3.44 ERA (36 2/3 IP, 14 ER), 33 H, 19 BB and 19 K over six starts.
- Wainwright beat L.A. 5-4 with 8 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 0 BB and 4 K Sept. 9.
- vs. Dodgers on the current roster: 2.63 FIP with a .281 batting average (BA), .293 wOBA, .406 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 15.6 K% and 85.0 mph exit velocity (EV) in 90 PA.
RHP Max Scherzer takes the hill for the Dodgers. Scherzer was 15-4 in the regular season with a 2.46 ERA (179 1/3 IP, 49 ER), 0.86 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 11.8 K/9 in 30 starts for L.A. and the Washington Nationals.
- Since Sept. 1: 3-0 with a 2.29 ERA (39 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 29 H, 3 BB and 48 K across six starts
- Scherzer was 2-0 in two regular-season starts against St. Louis over 14 IP with 0 ER, 10 H, 1 BB and 22 K.
- vs. Cardinals on the current roster: 0.87 FIP with a .166 BA, .182 wOBA, .302 xSLG, 38.0 K% and 87.2 mph EV in 171 PA.
Cardinals at Dodgers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:15 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Cardinals +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Dodgers -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-117) | Dodgers -1.5 (-103)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Prediction
Cardinals 3, Dodgers 2
Money line (ML)
There’s just too much value in St. Louis’ run line to not take a small stab at the CARDINALS (+180). If the MLB Wild Card play-in was a three- or five-game series instead of a single-game playoff then Dodgers (-230) might be a good bet.
However, St. Louis is the only ball club as hot as L.A. entering the postseason. Wainwright is the perfect type of starter to give the Dodgers’ hitters fits. Or any 2021 lineup for that matter.
“The Show” is full of power pitchers hitting mid-90s on the radar gun and maybe have an offspeed pitch or two in their pitch arsenal. But, Wainwright’s four-seam fastball is the fourth-most used pitch in his arsenal and averages 89.3 mph.
Wainwright’s big 12-6 curveball is his most used pitch at a 34.1% rate, and L.A.’s lineup struggled against curveballs in the regular season.
In fact, there are two Dodgers batters in their projected lineup with a 0 Run Value vs. curveballs and four batters with a negative Run Value vs. curveballs (according to Statcast).
Furthermore, St. Louis’ lineup has been more productive than L.A.’s during its hot streak recently. The Cardinals have a better WAR, wRC+ and wOBA since the beginning of September.
Lastly, the key to St. Louis’ miraculous postseason run over the past few weeks has been the transformation of its bullpen.
For instance, the Cardinals’ relievers had the worst SIERA, xFIP and K-BB% in the majors over the first half of the season. But, since the beginning of September, St. Louis’ bullpen is fifth in WAR and xFIP, ninth in SIERA and eighth in K-BB%. Ranking ahead of L.A.’s bullpen in each of those metrics.
It’s more of a “lean”, but I’ll put a small bet on the CARDINALS (+180) to win this outright and will put heavier bets on St. Louis’ run line and the total.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Definitely BET the CARDINALS -1.5 (-117) heavier than or instead of St. Louis’s money line.
Most of the analysis is matchup-based, but for what it’s worth, the Cardinals have the fourth-best cover rate on the road at 50-31 ATS.
Also, all of St. Louis’ victories over L.A. this season have been by a single-run margin so if the Cardinals steal this outright it’ll probably be a close game. Let’s play it safe and BET 1 unit on the CARDINALS -1.5 (-117).
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (-110) for a half unit because this is a “Pros vs. Joes” scenario in the betting market.
According to Pregame.com, more than 60% of the money wagered is on the Under whereas roughly 55% of the bets placed are on the Over. Typically, in sports gambling, it’s wiser to follow the money especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the public.
That said, this Cardinals-Dodgers total is low so I would not make a big bet on the UNDER 7.5 (-110).
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