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Let’s get into the game:
The USC Trojans opened as a 7-point favorite and the line has moved to -7.5 throughout the week.
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The story that always starts when the Buffs play Southern Cal is CU’s winless record against the Trojans in program history. Some people will look at that and immediately want to take the Trojans.
I sort of look at it the other way, I think that means it will have to happen eventually.
If there was a down year for the Trojans for the Buffs to take advantage of, this would be it. Not to mention the game is at home for CU and if there’s been one bright spot with the team this season, it’s the crowd that has shown up at home games.
The issue for Colorado is it has been putrid in its last two games and the offense hasn’t looked good all season. The Buffs have scored a total of 20 points over the last three games. The offense ranks third-to-last among division one programs in yards per game.
Brendon Lewis has statistically been the worst quarterback in the country this season and they don’t have any better options behind him. They are third-to-last in passing yards per game—ahead of triple-option offenses Army and Navy but behind Air Force.
Luckily for Dorrell and the Buffs, USC has had major issues stopping the run this season. They allowed 6.3 yards per carry against Oregon State this past weekend. The Buffs are capable of running the football although they did a poor job of it against Minnesota. There were a couple of drives against Arizona State where the run game looked like what it was in 2020 when Broussard won Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year.
The formula for CU will be to run the ball and play defense. And in this game, I expect the defense part to be more of a challenge than running the ball despite the contrary in CU’s previous games.
That’s because on the defensive side of the ball they will be going up against Kedon Slovis and the air raid attack. USC’s offense with Slovis at quarterback has not been good this season. The offense got going for one half against Washington State with Jaxson Dart behind center, who is out with a knee injury.
When CU’s defense has been at its best this season it was against Texas A&M’s backup quarterback when the Aggies were forced to run the football… and they didn’t run well. STATS.
USC will do the opposite. They will spread it out and run four wide receiver sets. CU struggled with ASU covering its speed in space and I can see the same thing happening against USC.
If the defensive gameplan of slowing down Slovis works, then I can absolutely see the Buffs staying in this game. On the flip side, if USC can get back to their old ways offensively and some of CU’s secondary struggles continue then the Trojans can run away with it.
That makes this game a very difficult game to handicap. I know a lot of people will want to be the under 51 based on what these offenses have done so far this season. But with USC’s inability to stop the run and CU’s inability to slow down pass-heavy offenses, I don’t see this game becoming a defensive battle.
The other key factor is team morale. Has USC mailed it in for the season? The Trojans know it will be a long year with their search for a new head coach already underway and what do they truly have to play for?
I can see CU being motivated to get its first win against the Trojans and the Buffs won’t get a better opportunity than this.
I won’t be betting this game myself. I see this game as a great opportunity to live bet. If USC’s offense gets going early, I can see the Trojans winning by 17+. But I can also see a highly motivated Colorado team desperate for a win pull this one out at home.
All betting lines are courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook.
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