The Oakland Athletics (85-74) and Houston Astros (93-66) open a three-game series Friday at 8:10 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Athletics vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.
LHP Sean Manaea is the projected starting pitcher for the Athletics. Through 31 starts, he is 10-10 with a 3.94 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 9.7 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 across 173 2/3 IP.
- Facing the Astros for a second straight start. Went 7 IP, allowing 1 ER on 3 hits while walking 1 and fanning 8 Saturday. Has held current Houston bats to an aggregate .705 OPS and .175 isolated power. Owns a 3.86 ERA over 30 1/3 IP against the Astros in 2021.
- Has struggled for much of the second half and has a 6.95 ERA over 44 IP spanning nine starts from Aug. 3-Sept. 20.
LHP Framber Valdez is the projected starter for the Astros. He is 11-5 with a 2.98 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9 through 129 2/3 IP over 21 starts.
- Oakland batters own a small-sample .473 OPS against him. The A’s lineup leans more left than most when facing lefty pitchers and that plays to an advantage for Valdez, who has limited lefty batters to a .626 career OPS. That figure comes alongside a .304 BABIP (which makes it reasonable to say he’s even that much tougher against same-side bats).
- Has allowed just 1 ER over his last 13 2/3 IP.
- Profiles as an extreme groundball pitcher and Oakland has below-average numbers against ground-ballers.
Athletics at Astros odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:30 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Athletics +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Astros -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Athletics +1.5 (-180) | Astros -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
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Prediction
Athletics 4, Astros 3
Money line (ML)
Oakland has fallen somewhat apart and definitely out of Wild Card contention over recent weeks. Since Sept. 3 and despite a five-game winning streak, the A’s are just 11-14. They enter this series on a three-game losing skid. Over their last 10 games, the Athletics are 3-7 with a paltry .646 OPS.
The Astros dropped three straight at Oakland last weekend, but they rallied to take two of three against the Tampa Bay Rays this week. The Houston offense cranked out 29 runs across three games against the Los Angeles Angels last week (Sept. 20-22), but the Astros have scored just 2.1 runs per game (with a .531 OPS) over seven games since.
Houston leads the season series, nine games to seven but the Astros own a plus-21 run differential over those 16 games.
The Manaea-Valdez matchup has some baked-in lean toward Oakland. The advantage is around the margins and due to factors like averages on balls in play and left-on-base rates.
Tag the visiting nine as having some value, at least in the series opener. BACK THE ATHLETICS (+115).
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS on the juicy prices here.
Over/Under (O/U)
With Houston struggling offensively and perhaps mired in pre-postseason rest mode, BACK THE UNDER 8.5 (-115).
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