The Boston Red Sox (89-70) and Washington Nationals (65-94) open a three-game series Friday with a 7:10 p.m. ET first pitch at Nationals Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Red Sox vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
LHP Eduardo Rodriguez is the projected starting pitcher for Boston. Rodriguez is 11-8 with a 4.93 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 10.6 K/9, and 2.6 BB/9 over 151 2/3 IP through 30 starts.
- Owns a 2.93 ERA over his last three starts.
- Has pitched through the traffic of a .365 batting average on balls in play.
LHP Josh Rogers is the projected starter for the Nationals. He is 2-1 with a 2.73 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 5.8 K/9, and 3.3 BB/9 across 29 2/3 IP over five starts.
- Has been hit fairly hard but has benefited from a .230 BABIP and a 93.5% left-on-base rate.
- Allowed 4 walks and 2 home runs over 4 2/3 IP at the Cincinnati Reds in his last start.
Red Sox at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:45 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Red Sox -205 (bet $205 to win $100) | Nationals +165 (bet $100 to win $165)
- Against the spread/ATS: Road -1.5 (-120) | Home +1.5 (+100)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)
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Prediction
Red Sox 6, Nationals 4
Money line (ML)
Boston has endured a nightmare since winning seven straight games from Sept. 14-22 and taking firm control of the race for the top AL Wildcard slot. The Red Sox were swept by the New York Yankees last weekend at Fenway Park and then dropped 2-of-3 at the Baltimore Orioles earlier this week.
Now the BoSox head into the season’s final weekend trailing the Yankees by two games for the Wildcard home game and fighting for their lives just to make the postseason at all.
The Nationals haven’t been playing for anything and have had an abysmal second half. The Nats are just 16-38 since Aug. 2. That bats haven’t been the problem for Washington (.761 OPS over those last 54 games), but its pitching staff owns a 5.63 ERA since the All-Star break.
The Sox are the lean in Friday’s opener, but figure the true odds being bracketed by these prices: PASS ON THE MONEY LINE.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Rodriguez has certainly been BABIP-undone in a lot of starts. Expected ERA metrics have the Sox lefty in the low-to-mid-3s, and his recent starts fit with that. Figure on Boston having the edge on the mound throughout, from the starter innings to the bullpen relief.
BACK THE RED SOX -1.5 (-120).
Over/Under (O/U)
The Nats are at their best against left-handers. The Red Sox will be in pour-it-on mode with an eye on the out-of-town scoreboard. Consider holding out for a better price, but TAKE THE OVER 9.5 (+100).
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