The Cleveland Indians (77-81) seek a split of their four-game road series against the Kansas City Royals (73-85) Thursday. First pitch is set for 8:10 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium. Let’s analyze the lines around the Indians vs. Royals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Indian RHP Shane Bieber (7-4, 3.17 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 12.8 K/9 through 93 2/3 IP.
- This is his second start since coming off the injured list with a shoulder injury suffered in June. He pitched three scoreless, hitless innings against the Chicago White Sox in his first game back.
- The Indians have won both Bieber’s starts this season against the Royals. He has allowed 6 runs (5 earned), 12 hits and has struck out 21 batters across two no-decisions.
Royals LHP Angel Zerpa, who makes his major league debut. He has split this season between High-A Quad Cities, AA Northwest Arkansas and AAA Omaha and is 4-4 with a 4.58 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 11.0 K/9 through 88 1/3 IP across 22 starts.
- Zerpa is the Royals’ No. 10 prospect according to Fangraphs.
- Replaces Brady Singer who was originally slated to start this game but has been placed on the injured list.
Indians at Royals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:05 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Indians -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Royals +130 (bet $100 to win $130)
- Against the spread/ATS: Indians -1.5 (+102) | Royals +1.5 (-125)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
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Prediction
Indians 6, Royals 2
Money line (ML)
The Indians won the series opener and then lost the next two games. They are 13-5 against the Royals this season but the Royals have won four of the last six games. Cleveland is 10-5 when Bieber starts.
The Royals have not won more than two games in a row since winning three in a row August 26-28. They are only 38-39 at home this season.
Considering the Indians have dominated the Royals in the season series and they will face a pitcher in his major league debut, take the INDIANS (-160).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The Indians are 85-73 ATS this season and 45-32 ATS on the road. They are 11-7 ATS against the Royals.
The Royals are 81-77 ATS overall but 36-41 ATS at home. They are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games and have covered the spread in the last two games. They have not covered more than two in a row since covering the spread in four straight August 26-29.
Take the INDIANS -1.5 (+102).
Over/Under (O/U)
All three games of this series so far have had 9 or more runs. 10 of the 18 games between the two teams have had at least 9 runs.
Only five of Bieber’s starts this season have had totals of 9 or more runs.
The Indians only had two of their previous eight games finish with 9 or more runs prior to this series, while only two of the Royals’ last nine games before this series had 9 or more runs.
Take UNDER 8.5 (-107).
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