The Atlanta Braves (80-71) stop by Petco Park Park Friday to begin a three-game series with the San Diego Padres (77-75). First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Braves vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.
The Braves had their four-game win streak broken after a 6-4 loss at the Arizona Diamondbacks Thursday. Atlanta’s magic number to clinch the NL East is 9 and is currently 2 games ahead of the second-place Philadelphia Phillies.
San Diego snapped a five-game losing skid Thursday with a 7-6 extra-innings victory against the San Francisco Giants. However, the Padres have fallen out of playoff contention as they sit 6 games back of the St. Louis Cardinals for the second NL Wild Card berth.
Season series: Tied 1-1.
LHP Max Fried is on the hill for the Braves. Fried is 12-7 with a 3.31 ERA (149 2/3 IP, 55 ER), 1.16 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 26 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 3-0, with 7 IP, 3 H, 1 BB and 5 K Sunday at the San Francisco Giants.
- Second half splits: 6-2 with a 1.99 ERA (77 IP, 17 ER), 0.94 WHIP and 4.8 K/BB in 12 starts.
RHP Reiss Knehr is San Diego’s projected starter. Knehr is 1-0 with a 3.93 ERA (18 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 13 H, 13 BB and 13 K across two starts and six relief appearances in his rookie season.
Braves at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:19 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Braves -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Padres +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (+115) | Padres +1.5 (-140)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
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Prediction
Braves 7, Padres 2
Money line (ML)
GIMME the BRAVES (-140) for 1 unit because they have something to play for still while the Padres are nearly eliminated from playoff contention.
Fried has been locked in since the All-Star Game and San Diego’s lineup is terrible against left-handed pitching. Padres hitters collectively rank 22nd in wRC+ and 23rd in wOBA vs. lefties.
The percentages are in Atlanta’s favor in this spot as the Braves are 31-14 overall as road favorites and the Padres are 4-8 as home underdogs. Atlanta’s lineup ranks 10th or better in hard-hit rate, wRC+, wOBA and BB/K on the road.
This is both a sharp and public play that has resulted in Atlanta’s money line steamed up from a -131 consensus favorite on the opener to the current number.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Braves -1.5 (+115) because I certainly think they’ll win by margin in this spot and Atlanta is 24-21 ATS as a road favorite while San Diego is 4-8 ATS as a home underdog.
However, I’m going to stay away because I made my buy-price for Atlanta’s run line +130 vs. San Diego and won’t partake in the Braves -1.5 (+115).
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-107) for a small wager even though the sharp side of the market is backing the Under, Fried has been dealing since the beginning of August and the Under cashing in nine of the past 11 Braves-Padres meetings.
The reasons why I “lean” Over in this spot are that San Diego’s bullpen has really struggled in September – Padres relievers are bottom 10 in ERA, xFIP and SIERA this month. Also, the Padres have scored at least 5 runs in the last four games.
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