The Houston Astros (91-61) look for the sweep in their four-game series with the Los Angeles Angels (72-80) when the clubs meet Thursday. First pitch from Angel Stadium is scheduled for 9:38 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Astros vs. Angels odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Astros RHP Lance McCullers Jr. (12-4, 3.11 ERA) makes his 27th start this season. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 through 150 1/3 IP.
- Is 2-1 with a 2.10 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and 10.2 K/9 over 25 2/3 IP through four starts against the Angels in 2021.
- Owns a 2.53 ERA and 11.8 K/9 through 64 IP across 11 starts on the road this year.
Angels RHP Alex Cobb (8-3, 3.59 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 through 82 2/3 IP.
- Making his second start since returning from the injured list after missing all of August and half of September. Pitched 5 scoreless innings on the road against the Chicago White Sox in his return Sept. 16.
- Allowed just 3 home runs on the season, although that number is likely a bit suppressed by a 6.3% HR/FB rate.
Astros at Angels odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:40 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Astros -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Angels +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
- Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (-103) | Angels +1.5 (-117)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
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Prediction
Houston 6, Los Angeles 2
Money line (ML)
Los Angeles is going to have its work cut out for it to end its six-game skid Thursday. The Astros have taken the first three games of the series by a combined score of 29-10 and seem to be in a fine position to secure the series sweep.
Houston is an elite-hitting club. The Astros are second in wRC+, third in wOBA and fourth in OPS in September. For the season, they are first in wRC+ and wOBA, while ranking third in OPS against right-handed pitching on the season. The Angels grade out as below-average against righties and are dead last in those categories in September.
BET the ASTROS (-175) to close out this four-game set.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
While Cobb has had a bit of a resurgent season, at least compared to his Baltimore years, he is not beyond giving up a few runs in the right scenario. One of his shortest starts of the season came April 22 at Houston when he allowed 4 earned runs on 6 hits and 3 walks over just 2 2/3 innings.
While neither bullpen has been exceptional in September, the Angels relievers have had an exceedingly difficult month. Los Angeles is 25th in K-BB%, 26th in SIERA and 27th in xFIP.
Anticipating that McCullers extends deeper into the game than Cobb only further exacerbates the situation for the Angels pitching staff.
BACK HOUSTON -1.5 (-103).
Over/Under (O/U)
I’m inclined to believe that this game stays Under, but with the Astros producing 9, 10 and 10 runs in the first three games of the series I simply can’t bring myself to actually come down on that side of things.
The Angels may not need to do much damage to push things over the number Thursday even if Cobb limits the Astros production comparatively to the first three games of the series.
Moreover, two bullpens that are struggling in September don’t inspire confidence that there may not be late runs scored.
I’m going to PASS on the total and avoid the situation altogether.
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