Despite both teams featuring rookie quarterbacks for the first time in the history of the Jets-Patriots rivalry, Week 2 looked eerily similar to what many have come to expect from a match between the AFC East rivals.
One quarterback looked unequivocally lost, while another remained poised and played well enough to deliver the win. Based on history alone, it’s easy to discern who is who between the Jets’ Zach Wilson and the Patriots’ Mac Jones.
Wilson threw four interceptions in his home opener – setting multiple firsts for the franchise in a game he’d like to forget. He threw erratically at times and failed to play, as Robert Saleh put it, “boring football” by checking down to his underneath receivers for easy completions.
Jones, meanwhile, didn’t amaze with his throws but led six scoring drives for his first win in the NFL. He completed 73.33 percent of his passes and didn’t turn the ball over, either.
Wilson had a slightly lower completion percentage than Jones but a few more yards. Both finished with around the same yards per completion average – Wilson with 6.4 and Jones with 6.2 – and neither threw a touchdown.
So why was Jones able to succeed where Wilson failed? This comes down to three things that are all related: Coaching, defense and decision making.
Wilson forced a lot of his throws. All four of his interceptions were on passing attempts more than 10 yards downfield when he specifically targeted receivers instead of going through his progressions. Wilson beamed two passes at Corey Davis which were intercepted, while he lofted two others to Elijah Moore. Neither should have been attempted, which is why Saleh wanted Wilson to check the ball down more.
A third of Wilson’s passing attempts – 11 in total – were greater than 10 yards downfield, which included his interceptions, per NextGen Stats. This is important because, on the other side, Jones only attempted five such passes against the Jets, according to NextGen Stats. The numbers were effectively reversed on check-down passes, too: Wilson only threw at or behind the line of scrimmage five times, while Jones did it nine times.
Jones understood the assignment, while Wilson tried to play hero ball. Jones played to his limitations – as a passer and as a rookie – and the Patriots coaching staff built a game plan around that.
Jones was one of the most efficient quarterbacks in college in 2020, especially on throws fewer than 10 yards downfield. He has continued that strategy in the NFL. He finished with the second-fewest average intended air yards and completed air yards in Week 2 with 4.6 yards and 3.0 yards, respectively, according to NextGen Stats. He ranks seventh and fifth in those stats this season.
Jones doesn’t push the ball down the field because the Patriots don’t ask him to do that. They’d rather rely on the short-yardage game and the rushing attack before they try to go for the long ball. New England isn’t built to air it out like the Chiefs or the Rams, so they don’t ask Jones to try.
Wilson is a different story. His passing attempts were almost in direct opposition to what Jones did in Week 2. Wilson finished 12th and tied for eighth in average intended air yards and average completed air yards against the Patriots, and his numbers were almost double that of Jones’. His 6.9 average completed air yards actually tied Kyler Murray and Jalen Hurts and were greater than Lamar Jackson in Week 2.
The Jets loved Wilson’s arm strength coming out of BYU, and he’s flashed his deep-ball ability already this season. Unfortunately, it’s been to his and the Jets’ detriment, as Wilson ranks fifth and ninth on the season in average intended and completed air yards, respectively, yet the Jets are 0-2 and Wilson leads the NFL with five interceptions.
This doesn’t spell doom for the Jets or crown a new Patriots dynasty, though. Saleh and his coaching staff just haven’t done a great job of helping Wilson go against his instincts, while the Patriots nurtured Jones’ tendencies. Let’s not forget the Jets coaching staff is almost as green as Wilson and went against a coach in Bill Belichick who’s led the Patriots since 2000.
Both Saleh’s crew and Wilson will learn, and neither’s futures will be written after just two games.
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