The Baltimore Orioles (47-99) and Boston Red Sox (83-65) open a three-game AL East series Friday at 7:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Orioles vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
LHP Keegan Akin is the projected starting pitcher for the Orioles. Through 22 games (15 starts), he is 2-9 with a 6.83 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 8.0 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 across 85 2/3 IP.
- Owns a 3.68 ERA and 0.91 WHIP over his last four starts, and that includes two turns against the Toronto Blue Jays and one against the New York Yankees.
- Has been hindered by a .324 BABIP and a 62.8% left-on-base rate.
LHP Chris Sale is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox. Through five starts this season, he is 3-0 with a 2.52 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 10.8 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 over 25 IP.
- Coming off the COVID-19 list and hasn’t pitched since Sept. 6. Owns a career 2.68 ERA (and a 6.2 K/BB ratio) when pitching on six or more days of rest.
Orioles at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Orioles +290 (bet $100 to win $290) | Red Sox -380 (bet $380 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Orioles +2.5 (+102) | Red Sox -2.5 (-125)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)
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Prediction
Red Sox 5, Orioles 4
Money line (ML)
Baltimore is coming off an 11-game home stand over which it went 4-7. The Orioles had a five-game losing skid along the way but snapped that with a 3-2 win over the Yankees Thursday evening.
The Red Sox had Thursday off after a road trip against the Chicago White Sox and Seattle Mariners. Boston is 1-5 across its last six games after an off day.
The Sox are 9-4 — with a plus-30 run differential — over 13 games against the O’s. However, Akin’s recent starts, Sale’s post-COVID status, and the pricing here make for value on BALTIMORE (+290).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Baltimore owns a fine .757 OPS against southpaws to rank eighth in MLB. The Orioles lean further to the right than most clubs when facing lefties and nd that plays into an advantage against a Sox bullpen which is tougher on lefty batters.
Consider BALTIMORE +2.5 (+102) as an insurance rider on the above ML play.
Over/Under (O/U)
The Fenway forecast calls for an inward breeze that would be a boon for the underdog-fly-balling Akin.
Peg the UNDER 9.5 (-105) with just a slight edge.
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