The Cleveland Browns have the highest goal possible in the NFL in 2021: Win the Super Bowl. While anything else will have a level of disappointment to it, the team (and their fans) understand the realities of the NFL. An injury here and there, a botched call on a fumble near the goal line or any number of variables can impact a season’s end results.
This becomes especially true in the playoffs where there is no room for error. There is also the old boxing adage “styles make fights.” In the NFL, matchups really do often lead to different results than just the pure talent differences on the field.
With the season kicking off on Thursday night, ESPN completed 20,000 simulations of the NFL season. From those 20,000 simulations, one stuck out to them, simulation #13,330.
For Browns fans, that simulation did not meet the ultimate goal for the team but did have Cleveland in the AFC Championship Game:
It was that Mayfield-OBJ connection that drove a 35-30 barn-burner victory over the Steelers in the wild-card round, but it was the rebuilt defense that earned the surprising 20-12 victory over the Chiefs in the divisional round and punched the Browns’ ticket to the AFC Championship Game.
Unfortunately, that is where the Browns season ended in this simulation as the matchup with the Buffalo Bills, and interceptions by Baker Mayfield, were just too much for the team to overcome:
The Browns’ story, ultimately, ended in defeat. Facing the AFC’s No. 1-seeded Bills, the offense crumbled trying to keep up with Josh Allen, as Mayfield threw two picks in a 27-13 loss. Buffalo was off to the Super Bowl for the first time since 1993.
Simulations are interesting in how they can help predict what will happen in the future. None are perfect but the one ESPN decided to focus on creates an interesting dilemma for Browns fans: Making the AFC Championship Game doesn’t meet the overall goal but is a successful season, would it get celebrated?