The Houston Astros (79-55) meet the San Diego Padres (71-64) Saturday for the second game in their three-game series at Petco Park with the first pitch scheduled for 8:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Astros vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Houston took the series opener 6-3 Friday after scoring a combined 3 runs in the top of the 8th and 9th innings.
Season series: Tied 2-2.
LHP Framber Valdez is Houston’s projected starter. He is 9-4 with a 2.91 ERA (105 IP, 34 ER), 1.22 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 over 17 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 5-2, with 7 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 7 K Saturday at the Texas Rangers.
- Valdez took a no-decision in San Diego’s 10-3 victory in Houston May 28 with a stat line of 4 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 2 BB and 4 K.
- vs. Padres on the current roster (24 PA): 7.20 FIP with a .063 batting average (BA), .288 wOBA, .294 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 16.7 K% and 85.4 mph exit velocity (EV).
- 2021 road stats: 5-3 with a 3.10 ERA (52 1/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.11 WHIP and 2.9 K/BB through eight starts.
RHP Joe Musgrove is on the rubber for the Padres. He is 9-8 with a 2.85 ERA (148 1/3 IP, 47 ER), 0.99 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 through 25 starts and one relief appearance.
- Last outing: Complete-game win, 5-0, 3 H, 2 BB and 9 K at the Los Angeles Angels Aug. 27.
- 2021 home stats: 5-4 with a 2.36 ERA (76 1/3 IP, 20 ER), 0.98 WHIP and 4.9 K/BB across 13 starts.
- vs. Astros on the current roster (36 PA): 2.58 FIP with a .219 BA, .246 wOBA, .309 xSLG, 11.1 K% and 86.2 mph EV.
Astros at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:15 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Astros -108 (bet $108 to win $100) | Padres -112 (bet $112 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (+155) | Padres +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)
PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!
Prediction
Padres 4, Astros 2
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the PADRES (-112) for a half unit as a “contrarian play” against a slight majority of the market that’s backing the Astros. The pro-Houston money has caused sportsbooks to make San Diego’s money line cheaper.
That said, Musgrove has been a lot more effective at home compared to his road starts, the Padres are 39-23 as home favorites, 23-15 against lefty starters and 11-5 in interleague games.
Furthermore, this is the cheapest San Diego has been as a home favorite with Musgrove on the mound and the Padres are 8-4 in this spot with an average line of -189.
FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS even though I’d love some insurance on San Diego’s money line since it’s an underdog on the run line; however, Padres +1.5 (-190) is far too expensive considering they are just 2-7 ATS as a home underdog this season.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (-120) for a half unit because I’m expecting another impressive outing from Musgrove, San Diego’s bullpen has been an elite unit all year, Padres bats struggle against left-handed pitching and Houston’s relief pitching has been the best in baseball since the All-Star break.
However, the presumed “sharp” money is backing the Over while the public is betting the Under and, typically, it’s wiser to follow the money rather than the crowd in sports gambling.
For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]