The Baltimore Orioles (41-91) and New York Yankees (77-56) open a three-game series Friday at Yankee Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Orioles vs. Yankees odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Yankees lead 8-5
Both teams had Thursday off. The Orioles just lost two of three at the Toronto Blue Jays. The Yankees avoided getting swept in three at the Los Angeles Angels with a 4-1 win Wednesday.
LHP John Means is projected to start for the Orioles Friday. He is 5-6 with a 3.46 ERA (114 1/3 IP, 44 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 in 20 starts this season.
- Last outing: No-decision, 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 4-3 home loss to Tampa Bay Rays Saturday
- Career vs. Yankees: 1-2, 6.23 ERA (26 IP, 18 ER), 1.58 WHIP, 8.7 K/9 in five starts and three relief appearances
- 2021 vs. Yankees: 0-0, 1.93 ERA (4 2/3 IP, 1 ER), 7 H, 2 BB, 4 K in one start, a 4-3 Orioles road win April 7
LHP Nestor Cortes Jr. is penciled in to start for the Yankees. He is 2-2 with a 2.77 ERA (61 2/3 IP, 19 ER), 1.09 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in eight starts and eight relief appearances.
- Last outing: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 4 K in 3-2 setback at Oakland A’s Saturday
- 2021 as a starter: 2-2, 3.00 ERA (42 IP, 14 ER), 1.07 WHIP, 7.7 K/9
- Career vs. Orioles: 1-0, 4.91 ERA (3 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 4 H, 1 BB, 2 K in two relief appearances in 2019
Orioles at Yankees odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:40 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Orioles +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Yankees -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Orioles +1.5 (-103) | Yankees -1.5 (-117)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: +110 | U: -135)
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Prediction
Yankees 5, Orioles 2
Money line (ML)
BET 1.5 UNITS on YANKEES (-250), who are 6-2 in Cortes’ starts.
I know the price is high, but the Orioles don’t win when Means takes the hill. They are 0-5 in his last five starts and a brutal 2-11 in his last 13.
Means owns a 5.61 ERA (25 2/3 IP, 16 ER) in his five August starts, and he’s 1-6 with a 5.69 ERA (49 IP, 31 ER) in his last 10 starts dating back to May 29.
Plus, the Orioles are 22-47 on the road, while the Yankees are 39-25 at home.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
ATS records: Orioles 53-79 | Yankees 66-67
BET YANKEES -1.5 (-117) TO WIN a HALF UNIT.
The Orioles have the majors’ second-worst ATS record, including an abysmal 20-37 ATS mark vs. the AL East Division.
With the help of a 19-game losing streak Aug. 3-Aug. 23, Baltimore finished August 4-24 straight up and 6-22 ATS.
Between the ATS and ML recommendations, the Yankees are basically the STRONGEST PLAY on this card – usually 1½ times your typical wager.
Over/Under (O/U)
O/U records: Orioles 68-60-4 | Yankees 57-72-4
BET UNDER 9.5 (-135) to WIN a QUARTER UNIT.
The Under is 6-2 in Cortes’ starts this season and 8-11 in Means’ starts.
I’m a bit hesitant because the Over is 5-1 in the last six head-to-head meetings after at 6-1 Under run to start their season series.
For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
| JOHNNY’S RECORD | W-L | SP | ROI |
| SINCE JULY 8 | 30-17 | 12-6 | +12.557 |
| *–SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment | |||
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