The Cleveland Indians (66-64) and Kansas City Royals (59-73) clash Thursday in the finale of a three-game series at Kauffman Stadium. First pitch is slated for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Indians vs. Royals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Triston McKenzie is the projected starting pitcher for the Indians. He is 3-5 with a 4.83 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 10.5 K/9, and 4.6 BB/9 in 91 1/3 IP over 18 starts and one relief appearance.
- Coming off a big August where he clocked a 1.93 ERA and 0.50 WHIP across four starts.
- Owns a 5.21 ERA on the road.
LHP Mike Minor is the projected starting pitcher for the Royals. He is 8-11 with a 5.30 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, and 2.5 BB/9 over 147 2/3 IP through 26 starts.
- Has been hurt by a low 65.6% left-on-base rate.
- Has a 4.35 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in seven second-half starts, recording at least 6 IP in five of them.
Indians at Royals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:29 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Indians -112 (bet $112 to win $100) | Royals -108 (bet $108 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Indians -1.5 (+145) | Royals +1.5 (-180)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Prediction
Royals 4, Indians 3
Money line (ML)
Cleveland has taken the first two games of this series and is 8-3 over its last 11 games. The Indians have banged out 5.6 runs per game on the strength of an .873 OPS during that stretch.
Kansas City has had a couple of surges in the second half, but both have been followed by regression. It’s been games on home turf that have exhibited the most slide. The Royals are just 3-7 with a .609 OPS in their last 10 games at Kauffman Stadium.
McKenzie goes on the road after logging his two highest pitch counts of the season (105 pitches two games back, 96 in his last). A backslide Thursday would not be a surprise. Minor has been solid of late.
Consider KANSAS CITY (-108) as a partial-unit play in this series finale.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
With a lean on the home nine, the price here nixes any value potential. PASS.
Over/Under (O/U)
The starter upside – and a Cleveland bullpen edge if McKenzie falters – tilts the equation toward the Under. Both teams have batting numbers a bit overcooked compared to Statcast quality-of-contact figures.
TAKE THE UNDER 8.5 (-108).
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