The Washington Nationals (54-72) stop by Citi Field Friday to start a three-game series with the New York Mets (61-66); first pitch will be at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Nationals vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Washington has lost two straight road series and four of its last five games against the Miami Marlins and Milwaukee Brewers.
New York lost six of its last seven games to the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers and has dropped 11 of its last 13 games.
Season series: Mets lead 6-5.
RHP Paolo Espino is Washington’s projected starter. He is 3-4 with a 4.28 ERA (75 2/3 IP, 36 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 through 12 starts and 16 relief appearances.
- Last outing: No-decision with 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 6 K in Washington’s 9-6 loss against the Brewers Saturday.
- Espino is 1-0 against New York this season with 7 IP 1 ER, 7 H, 0 BB and 3 K in two starts and one relief outing.
LHP Rich Hill is on the mound for the Mets. He is 6-5 with a 4.13 ERA (122 IP, 56 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 through 24 starts and one relief appearance.
- Last outing: Loss, 4-3, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 2 K Saturday at the Los Angeles Dodgers.
- Hill lost to Washington June 29 (4-3) while pitching for the Tampa Bay Rays with a stat line of 6 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 2 K.
Nationals at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:50 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Nationals +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Mets -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Nationals +1.5 (-130) | Mets -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)
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Prediction
Mets 6, Nationals 5
Money line (ML)
PASS even though I agree with New York being a sizeable favorite here because the Mets (-200) are a little too expensive given how terrible they’ve been over the past month.
New York is just 9-21 over its last 30 games, which is the same previous 30-game mark as Washington, but the Mets were first in the NL East before their freefall whereas the Nationals were sellers at the trade deadline.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the NATIONALS +1.5 (-130) for a half unit because Washington is a much wiser wager in this spot.
The Nationals are 24-23 ATS as road underdogs and 28-28 ATS vs. NL East teams. While the Mets are 14-32 ATS as home favorites despite being 29-17 outright as a home favorite. They’re also just 20-32 ATS against divisional foes.
It’s only a “lean” toward Washington because the Nationals’ bullpen has the worst WAR, xFIP, K-BB% and SIERA in the second half.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-125) for a half unit because of the aforementioned struggles with Washington’s bullpen and the Nationals’ hitting numbers against left-handed pitching. For example, Washington’s lineup ranks second in wRC+ and first in wOBA against left-handed pitching.
However, my reason for just “leaning” to the Over is most of the applicable situational trends point to this being a lower-scoring affair and the sharps are backing the Under while the public is betting the Over, according to Pregame.com.
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