The Pittsburgh Pirates (47-81) host the St. Louis Cardinals (64-62) Friday for the second game of their four-game series at PNC Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Cardinals vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Pittsburgh rallied back from a 4-run deficit with an 8-run 7th-inning outburst to win the series opener Thursday 11-7. Pirates batters four through six (1B Colin Moran, 3B Wilmer Difo and RF Gregory Polanco) combined to hit 10-for-15 with a home run, 2 doubles and 6 RBIs.
Season series: Cardinals lead 10-6.
LHP J.A. Happ is St. Louis’s projected starter. Happ is 7-6 with a 5.88 ERA (121 IP, 79 ER), 1.48 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 23 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 8 K in St. Louis’s 5-4 loss Saturday against Pittsburgh.
- Happ is 2-0 against Pittsburgh this season with a 1.40 ERA (19 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 8 H, 5 BB and 16 K in three starts.
- vs. the Pirates on the current roster (62 PA): 4.32 FIP with a .190 batting average (BA), .272 wOBA, .391 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 27.4 K% and 89.8 mph exit velocity (EV).
LHP Dillon Peters makes his third start for the Pirates. Peters is 0-1 with a 1.86 ERA (9 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 8 H, 4 BB and 6 K across two starts.
- .Last outing: No-decision with 5 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 3 K in Pittsburgh’s 5-4 win Saturday at St. Louis.
- vs. Cardinals on the current roster (22 PA): 5.75 FIP with a .200 BA, .290 wOBA, .580 xSLG, 13.6 K% and 88.3 mph EV.
Cardinals at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:55 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Cardinals -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Pirates +130 (bet $100 to win $130)
- Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (+100) | Pirates +1.5 (-125)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)
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Prediction
Cardinals 7, Pirates 3
Money line (ML)
Happ is a starter I typically like to fade but he’s been very good since joining the Cardinals at the trade deadline. Happ is 2-0 with a 1.99 ERA (22 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 1.02 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in four starts since arriving in St. Louis.
Pittsburgh’s lineup has the second-worst wRC+ and wOBA against left-handed pitching and fifth-worst hard-hit rate. St. Louis’s lineup ranks 13th in wRC+ but has the sixth-best hard-hit rate vs. lefties.
The Cardinals are 6-1 overall as road favorites of -130 or more with a plus-43.5% return on investment (ROI) and an average score of 6.1-3.0. On the flip side, the Pirates are 3-9 overall as home underdogs of +120 or greater with a minus-29.0% ROI and an average score of 6.0-4.2.
GIMME the CARDINALS (-160).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because St. Louis’s bullpen is not dependable enough to lay it with the Cardinals -1.5 (+100). For instance, St. Louis’s bullpen has the worst SIERA and K-BB% in the majors and the second-worst xFIP.
Also, the Cardinals are just 22-28 ATS against divisional foes and the Pirates are 29-27 ATS as a home underdog.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-125) for a tiny wager – if at all – because I much prefer betting St. Louis’s money line instead of the total. However, both ball clubs have played more to the Over in division games and Happ’s teams are 13-8-2 O/U in his starts.
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