Analytics in sports have varying degrees of success, but when implemented properly, they can give you a very good idea of how and why what you see on the field is happening. ESPN’s SP+ is a generally very good system for analyzing the quality of different college football teams.
Unlike most rankings, the SP+ has no human element and doesn’t take the final score into account. Rather, it’s based around how well a team plays and, given that information, how likely they would be to win a game delivering that performance.
It isn’t perfect, but it’s a system that can shed a lot of light on college football teams.
ESPN’s Bill Connelly, who created the SP+, recently updated his rankings to include projected win totals for all 130 FBS teams, and for Florida, he predicts another season relatively in line with coach Dan Mullen‘s success so far.
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The SP+ predicts 9.1 wins overall for the Gators and 5.5 in the SEC. That roughly corresponds with a projected 9-3 overall record and 5-3 record in the SEC. Considering Florida has games against Alabama, Georgia and on the road against LSU, it’s easy to see how the team could drop three games on the regular season.
According to the SP+, Florida’s odds of going over the projected total and winning 10 or more games is 31 percent. It gives the Gators a 30% chance of hitting nine wins exactly.
UF has some doubters this season, and it seems the numbers aren’t particularly favorable to Florida, either. But fans will hope this team is able to surprise some people with veteran backup Emory Jones finally stepping into the starting quarterback role.
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