The Los Angeles Angels (58-58) host the Houston Astros (68-46) Friday for the opener of their three-game series at Angel Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 9:38 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Astros vs. Angels odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Astros lead 6-3.
RHP Zack Greinke is Houston’s projected starter. Greinke is 10-3 with a 3.69 ERA (136 2/3 IP, 56 ER), 1.16 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in 23 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 3 K in Houston’s 5-4 loss August 6 to the Minnesota Twins.
- Greinke has gotten two no-decisions against L.A. this season with a 2.57 ERA (14 IP, 4 ER), 15 H, 1 BB and 10 K in two starts.
- vs. Angels on the current roster (150 PA): 5.08 FIP with a .283 batting average (BA), .344 wOBA, .341 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 13.3 K% and 83.9 mph exit velocity (EV).
LHP Patrick Sandoval is L.A.’s projected starter. Sandoval is 3-5 with a 3.39 ERA (82 1/3 IP, 31 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 in 13 starts and three relief appearances.
- Last outing: No-decision with 5 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 4 K in 4-3 Angels win August 6 at the Los Angeles Dodgers.
- 2021 home splits: 1-4 with a 3.50 ERA (43 2/3 IP, 17 ER), 1.28 WHIP and 10.9 K/9 in seven starts and two bullpen outings.
Astros at Angels odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:40 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Astros -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Angels +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (+120) | Angels +1.5 (-150)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
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Prediction
Angels 5, Astros 3
Money line (ML)
BET the ANGELS (+115) for 1 unit since L.A. has the edge in both relief and starting pitching and there’s been heavy “reverse line movement” in L.A.’s direction.
For instance, the Astros are getting nearly 85% of the action but Houston’s money line has dropped from -155 on the opener to the current number according to pregame.com.
It’s a red flag in sports betting when the House makes the more popular side cheaper. For whatever reason oddsmakers are trying to entice more pro-Astros action and we don’t want to play into their hands.
The reason for the reverse line movement is because L.A.’s pitching staff might have an edge in this game. Sandoval has a lower xFIP and SIERA than Greinke this season and grades out much better than Greinke in EV, xSLG, expected wOBA, K% and whiff rate.
Furthermore, L.A.’s bullpen has been lights out following the All-Star Game. The Angels relievers rank eighth in both home run per nine-inning rate and FIP and fourth in WAR in the second half of the year while Houston’s bullpen is below-average in each of those categories.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because the Angels +1.5 (-150) is a little more than I’m willing to risk given they are just 16-34 ATS in games against AL West foes while the Astros are 26-18 ATS.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (+105) for a tiny wager because Greinke has been awesome on the road this year and I like L.A.’s pitching staff in this spot.
Greinke is 5-0 with a 2.67 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 4.3 K/BB on the road with a 4.58 ERA,1.35 WHIP and 2.9 K/BBat home.
However, I’d wait closer to the first pitch in hopes of getting a 9-run total since that’s where the market is headed. Also, these teams have a 21-14 O/U record when these starters take the mound.
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