The New York Mets (59-55) host the Los Angeles Dodgers (69-46) Friday for the opener of a three-game series. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Dodgers vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
New York paused its freefall in the NL East standings by sweeping a three-game set with the Washington Nationals earlier this week but is just 8-12 in the last 20 games.
L.A. had a four-game win streak snapped Thursday with a 2-1 loss at the Philadelphia Phillies and is 7-3 over the last 10 games. The Dodgers still sit 5 games back of the San Francisco Giants in the NL West standings.
Season series: Tied 0-0.
LHP Julio Urias gets the nod for the Dodgers. Urias is 13-3 with a 3.41 ERA (134 2/3 IP, 51 ER), 1.08 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 23 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 3 BB and 5 K in a 5-3 victory over the Los Angeles Angels Saturday.
- 2021 road splits: 10-2 with a 3.07 ERA (76 1/3 IP, 26 ER), 0.98 WHIP and 5.9 K/BB in 13 starts.
RHP Tylor Megill is New York’s projected starter. Megill is 1-2 with a 3.20 ERA (45 IP, 16 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in nine starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 5-3, 4 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 5 K at the Philadelphia Phillies Saturday.
- 2021 home splits: 1-0 with a 1.85 ERA (24 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 1.03 WHIP and 3.2 K/BB in five starts.
Dodgers at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:03 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Dodgers -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Mets +130 (bet $100 to win $130)
- Against the spread/ATS: Dodgers -1.5 (+105) | Mets +1.5 (-130)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)
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Prediction
Mets 4, Dodgers 3
Money line (ML)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Mets because I like their run line price since both teams’ bullpen pitching is very good, Megill has pitched much better at home and the Mets are 36-20 in New York.
Compare Megill’s home starts written above against these road splits: 0-2 with a 4.79 ERA (20 2/3 IP, 11 ER), 1.26 WHIP and 6.3 K/BB in four starts.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the METS +1.5 (-130) for a half unit because New York is 8-4 ATS as a home underdog with a plus-1.9 run line margin and L.A. is just 28-29 ATS as a road favorite.
Also, there’s a “line freeze” in the Dodgers-Mets run line betting market since L.A. is getting a vast majority of the action but the odds haven’t budged much according to Pregame.com.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-125) for a half unit because New York has played to the highest rate of Unders at home this year and the Mets have gone Under in Megill’s last four home starts.
Furthermore, there’s also a “line freeze” here with the market hammering the Over at nearly an 80% clip but the total hasn’t moved from the opener.
Also, Urias has elite-level stuff as he grades in the 90th percentile or better in chase rate, BB%, hard-hit rate and exit velocity. However, my hesitancy with this total is L.A.’s 14-7 O/U record in Urias starts.
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