The Milwaukee Brewers (66-46) travel to the Windy City to start a four-game series with the Chicago Cubs (52-61) at Wrigley Field Monday. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Brewers vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Milwaukee lost the rubber match of a three-game set against the San Francisco Giants Sunday but is 6-4 over its last 10 games and 13-7 in the previous 20.
Chicago was swept in an interleague set against the crosstown rival Chicago White Sox this past weekend and is just 6-14 over its last 20 games.
Season series: Brewers lead 9-3.
RHP Freddy Peralta is Milwaukee’s projected starter. He is 8-3 with a 2.21 ERA (114 IP, 28 ER), 0.90 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 12.2 K/9 through 20 starts and one relief appearance.
- Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 9 K in Milwaukee’s 4-2 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates Wednesday.
- Peralta is 2-0 this season against Chicago with a 2.14 ERA (21 IP, 5 ER), 1.00 WHIP and 3.0 K/BB rate over four starts.
- vs. Cubs on the current roster (46 PA): 2.31 FIP with a .146 batting average (BA), .222 wOBA, .269 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 41.3 K% and 86.9 mph exit velocity (EV).
RHP Alec Mills is on the mound for the Cubs. He is 5-4 with a 4.41 ERA (69 1/3 IP, 34 ER), 1.44 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 6.5 K/9 through 10 starts and 12 relief appearances.
- Last outing: Win, 3-2, with 6 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 2 BB and 3 K at the Colorado Rockies Wednesday.
- Mills is 0-0 against Milwaukee this season with 3 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 1 K in one start and three relief outings spanning 8 1/3 IP.
- vs. Brewers on the current roster (45 PA): 6.11 FIP with a .214 BA, .315 wOBA, .431 xSLG, 11.1 K% and 85.7 mph EV.
Brewers at Cubs odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:50 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Brewers -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Cubs +160 (bet $100 to win $160)
- Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (-120) | Cubs +1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
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Prediction
Brewers 4, Cubs 1
Money line (ML)
PASS with a slight “lean” toward the Brewers (-200) because Milwaukee is the right side but a little too pricey in this spot.
Peralta is low-key putting up a Cy Young caliber season. He grades in the 85th percentile or better in hard-hit rate and EV, 96th percentile in expected wOBA, 97th percentile in xSLG and 94th percentile in K%.
Peralta’s numbers don’t dip much on the road, either. He has a 2.51 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP and a .573 OPS allowed as a visitor.
I wouldn’t hate risking 1 unit on the Brewers (-200), as in if your typical bet is $100 then wager that on Milwaukee’s money line to earn a $50 profit.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
BET the BREWERS -1.5 (-120) for 1 unit because Milwaukee has the third-best cover rate in divisional matchups at 31-19 ATS.
More importantly, the Cubs have flipped their season into “tank mode” and had a fire sale of assets around the trade deadline. I’m in favor of fading Chicago against a Milwaukee team trending in the other direction.
Since the deadline, the Cubs’ lineup is in the bottom-six of WAR, wRC+, wOBA and hard-hit rate. Also, Chicago’s bullpen is 0-3 with the highest home run per nine-inning rate and the second-worst FIP in MLB over that span.
Over/Under (O/U)
TAKE the UNDER 8.5 (+105) because Milwaukee’s lineup ranks right around Chicago’s in most hitting categories this month and averages fewer than 4 runs per game at Wrigley Field this year.
Furthermore, Mills has the fifth-highest contact rate of any pitcher with a minimum of 60 IP but the Brew Crew’s lineup is below-average in hard-contact and barrel rates so I feel good about Mills’ chances of having a quality start.
On top of that, if Peralta gets roughed up or isn’t dialed in then Milwaukee can resort to its awesome bullpen that ranks sixth in SIERA, ninth in xFIP and sixth in K-BB%.
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