The Los Angeles Angels (55-54) meet the Los Angeles Dodgers (65-44) Friday to start a three-game “Freeway Series” at Dodger Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET Let’s analyze the lines around the Angels vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
The Angels won three straight at the Texas Rangers Tuesday-Thursday by a combined score of 18-4 but have won just five of their last 10 games.
The Dodgers split a two-game interleague series against the Houston Astros this week and are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
Season series: Angels lead 2-1.
LHP Patrick Sandoval gets the nod for the Angels. Sandoval is 3-5 with a 3.88 ERA (77 1/3 IP, 29 ER), 1.15 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 in 12 starts and three relief appearances.
- Last outing: Loss, 2-0, with 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 6 BB and 6 K July 30 against the Oakland Athletics.
- vs. Dodgers on the current roster (38 PA): 8.82 FIP with a .250 batting average (BA), .393 wOBA, .499 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 15.8 K% and 88.5 mph exit velocity (EV).
LHP David Price is on the mound for the Dodgers. Price is 4-1 with a 3.55 ERA (45 2/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.45 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in seven starts and 21 relief appearances.
- Last start: Loss, 5-0, with 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 2 K at the San Francisco Giants July 29.
- vs. Angels on the current roster (88 PA): 2.58 FIP with a .280 BA, .332 wOBA, .364 xSLG, 28.4 K% and 87.3 mph EV.
Angels at Dodgers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:05 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Angels +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Dodgers -220 (bet $220 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Angels +1.5 (-122) | Dodgers -1.5 (-102)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Prediction
Angels 5, Dodgers 3
Money line (ML)
Slight “LEAN” to the ANGELS (+180) for a tiny wager because I feel really good about their run line and see the value in sprinkling on the underdog’s money line.
The Angels’ batters have a higher wRC+, wOBA and OPS against left-handed pitching than the Dodgers. Also, I give the Angels the edge in the pitching matchup.
First of all, Sandoval’s pitching peripherals paint an even rosier picture than his basic numbers. Sandoval grades in the 77th percentile or better in hard-contact rate, chase rate, whiff rate, expected wOBA, xSLG and EV.
On top of that, the Dodgers’ bullpen figures to play a major role in the outcome of this game because Price is only averaging 1 2/3 IP per outing. This should be a concern for the Dodgers since their bullpen has mediocre advanced pitching splits and the second-most blown saves in the majors.
Furthermore, the Angels relievers are ranked ahead of the Dodgers in xFIP, WAR, home run per nine-inning rate and K-BB% following the All-Star Game.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Definitely BET the ANGELS +1.5 (-122) heavier than, or instead of, their money line. It’s just wiser to take the run-and-a-half worth of insurance even though I’m leaning to the Angels winning the “Freeway Series” opener outright.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-112) for a half unit because the presumed “sharp” money is on the Under whereas the “public” is backing the Over and Sandoval has been more effective on the road than at home this year.
For instance, at publication according to Pregame.com almost 60% of the cash wagered has been on the Under but more than three-fourths of the total bets are on the Over and it’s generally sharper to follow the money in sports betting rather than the crowd.
Also, Sandoval has a 3.21 ERA on the road (3.50 home ERA), 0.98 WHIP (1.28 home WHIP) and a 3.4 K/BB on the road (2.4 K/BB at home).
I’m expecting the Angels to get a quality start out of Sandoval Friday and the Dodgers’ pitching staff gets to face an Angels lineup that’s projected to be without Mike Trout, 3B Anthony Rendon and 1B Jared Walsh.
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