The New York Mets (56-52) travel to Citizens Bank Park Friday to start a three-game set with the Philadelphia Phillies (56-53) at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mets vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
New York has lost four of its last six games, and seven of the last 10, and is now just a half-game in front of Philly for first in the NL East. The Phillies are 12-9 since the All-Star Game but have won five straight games entering Friday.
Season series: Mets lead 8-5.
RHP Marcus Stroman makes his 23rd start for the Mets. Stroman is 7-10 with a 2.80 ERA (122 IP, 38 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9.
- Last outing: Loss, 7-1, with 5 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 4 K against the Cincinnati Reds Sunday.
- Stroman is 2-2 this season against Philly with a 1.35 ERA (20 IP, 3 ER), 1.05 WHIP and 2.8 K/BB in four starts.
- vs. Phillies on the current roster (170 PA): 2.80 FIP with a .229 batting average (BA), .259 wOBA, .367 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 21.2 K% and 88.1 mph exit velocity (EV).
RHP Kyle Gibson is on the mound for the Phillies. Gibson is 7-3 with a 2.86 ERA (119 2/3 IP, 38 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 20 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 15-4, with 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 5 K Sunday at the Pittsburgh Pirates.
- vs. Mets on the current roster (75 PA): 5.49 FIP with a .354 BA, .425 wOBA, .430 xSLG, 22.7 K% and 85.9 mph EV.
Mets at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:40 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Mets -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Phillies -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Mets -1.5 (-140) | Phillies +1.5 (-180)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Prediction
Phillies 6, Mets 5
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the PHILLIES (-110) for a half unit because Philly has been raking lately and I’m higher on Gibson than Stroman in this spot. Also, Philly is 31-21 at home while New York is 23-32 on the road.
Philly’s lineup ranks second in WAR, third in wOBA, sixth in wRC+, and eighth in hard-contact rate over the last two weeks. On the other hand, New York’s lineup ranks in the bottom-10 in each of those categories in the past 14 days.
I’m hesitant to fully endorse the Phillies in this spot because their bullpen is terrible. Philly’s relievers have the fifth-worst FIP and home run per nine-inning rate and the ninth-worst K-BB%.
Usually, I’d be touting Philly’s First 5 Innings money line but Tipico Sportsbook only offers a three-way First 5 Innings money line so instead of chopping if it were tied after the 5th inning, we’d lose.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because the Phillies +1.5 (-180) is far too pricey considering how unreliable their bullpen has been. However, it’s a line I’ll keep my eye on throughout the day because Philly’s run line has a bit of value.
The reasons being the Phillies are an MLB-best 13-4 ATS as a home underdog and the Mets are 7-22 ATS with a minus-2.1 run line margin as a road favorite.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (-112) for a half unit because the Over has cashed in seven of the last Mets-Phillies meetings in Philly and New York is 31-21-2 O/U on the road.
However, it’s only a slight “lean” since we are getting the worst of the number because the market has steamed this total up from the 8.5-run opener to the current price. I’m always leery about following a crowd in sports betting, which is another cause for concern with my OVER 9.5 (-112) lean.
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