The Minnesota Twins (45-63) meet the Houston Astros (65-43) in a Thursday opener of a four-game set at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is slated for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Twins vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Griffin Jax is the projected starting pitcher for the Twins. Jax is a rookie, who has appeared in seven games, three as a starter. He is 1-1 with a 6.41 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 7.4 K/9, and 3.7 BB/9 in 26 2/3 IP.
- Has been solid over two short-inning starts in the second half, allowing 2 earned runs in 9 innings.
- Has been an extreme fly-ball pitcher (29.1% ground balls). Houston ranks fourth in MLB with a .779 OPS vs. fly-ball pitchers.
LHP Framber Valdez is the projected starter for the Astros. He is 7-2 with a 3.01 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, and 4.1 BB/9 in 71 2/3 IP over 12 starts.
- Coming off an uneven July (4.05 ERA, with 1-2 clunkers and 1-2 other starts in which he walked 6 batters).
- Held foes to 2 ER or less in five of six home starts in 2021.
Twins at Astros odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:08 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Twins +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Astros -280 (bet $280 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Twins +1.5 (+105) | Astros -1.5 (-130)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)
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Prediction
Twins 6, Astros 5
Money line (ML)
Minnesota is a disappointing 6-13 since the break, and pitching continues to bedevil a club which ranks ninth in the league in OPS (.749). The Twins have yielded 5 or more runs in eight of their last nine games, and they own a Boeing ERA (7.06) over their last six.
Houston has also had a pitching downturn (4.41 ERA in the second half), but the Astros have managed to go 9-5 in their last 14 games. Houston’s .781 season OPS ranks second in the league.
Astros bats scuffled coming out of the break, but Houston is coming off a road trip that saw it slash a .287/.346/.520 (.866 OPS) over eight games against the Seattle Mariners, San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers.
Clearly, the home nine is worthy of being a big favorite in Thursday’s opener, But the MINNESOTA (+220) figure is too good to pass up.
Houston has had a couple returning-from-a-road-trip-hangover games this season, and this spot — after tough games against three playoff-contending clubs — fits that bill.
Valdez suffers enough control woes to make things interesting, and the Minnesota bullpen has pitched better than its 5.14 second-half ERA would indicate.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
This play is filled with less juice, but the price isn’t as market-completive. PASS.
Over/Under (O/U)
The Over is 7-1 in Minnesota’s last eight games and 6-2 in Houston’s last eight. With a couple top-notch offensive clubs and some reasons to chip away at Valdez’ season pitching line, TAKE THE OVER 9.5 (+100) in this one.
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