The Boston Red Sox (64-45) and Detroit Tigers (52-58) tangle in a Thursday matinee to close out their three-game series in the Motor City. First pitch at Comerica Park is slated for 1:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Red Sox vs. Tigers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
LHP Martin Perez is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox. He is 7-7 with a 4.56 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 through 98 2/3 IP spanning 21 starts.
- Was rocked for 3 home runs and 6 ER in his last start and owns a 6.69 ERA over 10 starts since June 8. Pitched 4 or fewer innings in three of his last four starts.
- Has allowed a walk-heavy .856 OPS in past meetings against active Tigers hitters.
LHP Tarik Skubal is the projected starter for the Tigers. Over 21 games (19 starts), he is 6-10 with a 4.53 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 10.0 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 through 105 1/3 IP.
- Coming off dodgy back-to-back outings with 9 ER allowed over 10 2/3 total IP and owns a 5.86 ERA across five starts since July 3. The missteps over his last two starts were fueled by a combined 6 home runs.
- Has pitched through a weak schedule, as only four of his 21 games were against teams ranked in the top 10 by OPS.
Red Sox at Tigers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:10 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Red Sox -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Tigers +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox -1.5 (+115) | Tigers +1.5 (-145)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)
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Prediction
Tigers 6, Red Sox 4
Money line (ML)
The BoSox and Bengals split the first two games of this series. Boston’s 4-1 victory Wednesday night snapped a 5-game losing skid.
Detroit has been solid in the second half at 12-7 since the break. Detroit owns a robust .795 OPS in the second half and is 11-2 over its last 13 series finales. The Tigers are a solid 31-24 in their home yard.
Boston is a top-five offensive club overall, but the Red Sox have posted a pedestrian .677 OPS over their last dozen games.
BACK THE TIGERS (+115).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS on the run line with this contest set up for an Over and more big-score variance chipping away at the probability of a 1-run game.
Over/Under (O/U)
Both starters cough up their fair share of hard contact, and both will hand off to struggling bullpens. Both clubs have right-leaning lineups (the Tigers more so), and that cuts into problem areas for Perez (.851 OPS allowed vs. right-handed bats) and Skubal (.825).
TAKE THE OVER 9.5 (-125).
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