The Chicago Cubs (50-55) and Washington Nationals (48-55) continue their three-game set at Nationals Park Saturday with the second game’s first pitch scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Washington beat Chicago in the series opener Friday, 4-3, as Nationals starting RHP Paolo Espino allowed just 1 earned run over 5 1/3 innings of work and Washington’s bullpen held off the Cubs late-inning rally.
Season series: Cubs lead 3-2.
RHP Kyle Hendricks is Chicago’s projected starter. Hendricks is 12-4 with a 3.85 ERA (121 2/3 IP, 52 ER), 1.31 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 6.7 K/9 in 21 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 4 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 9 H, 2 BB and 4 K in Chicago’s 6-5 victory over the Cincinnati Reds Monday.
- 2021 road splits: 6-1 with a 3.34 ERA (62 IP, 23 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 4.4 K/BB over 10 starts.
RHP Joe Ross makes his 18th start for the Nationals. Ross is 5-8 with a 3.80 ERA (92 1/3 IP, 39 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: No-decision with 5 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 4 K in Washington’s 6-5 loss at the Philadelphia Phillies Monday.
- Ross took a loss at the Cubs May 20 with a stat line of 3 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 3 K in Washington’s 5-2 defeat.
- 2021 home splits: 2-4 with a 4.99 ERA (39 2/3 IP, 22 ER), 1.21 WHIP and 5.5 K/BB in seven starts.
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Cubs at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:45 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Cubs +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Nationals -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Cubs -1.5 (+165) | Nationals +1.5 (-200)
- Over/Under: 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Cubs 7, Nationals 4
Money line (ML)
Ehh, ya know? Saturday’s Cubs-Nationals game is akin to an NBA Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Detroit Pistons game in the middle of April. Both teams offloaded a ton of talent at the trade deadline and are in rebuild mode.
That being said, Hendricks is the differentiator in this matchup and provides value for the CUBS (+100) FIRST 5 INNINGS. Despite it being a lost year in Chicago, Hendricks is still a “top of the rotation” guy who figures to be part of the Cubs’ future.
Also, Ross has been awful at home and he has a .798 opponent’s OPS in Washington compared to a .624 opponent’s OPS on the road.
However, I’m sticking with the CUBS (+100) FIRST 5 INNINGS because Chicago traded away its three best bullpen arms at the trade deadline and the Cubs relievers have the fifth-worst FIP following the All-Star Break.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Slight “LEAN” to the CUBS -1.5 (+165) for a tiny wager because it’s a chunky payout, Hendricks is that much better than Ross and Washington’s bullpen is even worse than Chicago’s thus far in the second half.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET the OVER 8 (-105) for 1 unit because there’s been a “sharp line move” towards the Over as the total opened at 7.5 before it was steamed up to the current number.
As alluded to before, Washington’s bullpen has the highest FIP and home run per nine-inning rate following the All-Star Break with the lowest left-on-base percentage.
The Nationals also parted ways with two of their best bullpen arms at the trade deadline in former closer Brad Hand and reliever Daniel Hudson.
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