The Boston Red Sox (63-42) meet the Tampa Bay Rays (62-42) Saturday for the second game of their three-game set at Tropicana Field. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Red Sox vs. Rays odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Tampa Bay won Friday’s series opener 7-3 as the Rays chased Red Sox LHP Martin Perez after just 4 innings, by scoring 6 earned runs on 7 hits, 1 walk and 3 home runs with only 3 strikeouts.
Season series: Red Sox lead 4-3.
RHP Nathan Eovaldi is Boston’s projected starter. Eovaldi is 9-5 with a 3.49 ERA (116 IP, 45 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 through 20 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 7 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 0 BB and 8 K in Boston’d 4-3 loss to the New York Yankees July 24.
- Eovaldi beat Tampa Bay April 7 with a stat line of 7 IP, 1 ER, 3H, 3 BB and 7 K in Boston’s 9-2 victory.
- vs. Rays on the current roster (98 PA): 4.54 FIP with a .295 batting average (BA), .390 expected wOBA, .491 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 23.5 K% and 88.4 mph exit velocity (EV).
LHP Ryan Yarbrough takes the hill for the Rays. He is 6-4 with a 4.38 ERA (109 IP, 53 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 through 15 starts and five relief appearances.
- Last outing: No-decision with 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 6 K in Tampa Bay’s 3-2 loss at the Cleveland Indians Sunday.
- Yarbrough lost to the Red Sox April 7 with 5 IP, 6 ER, 9 H, 1 BB and 2 K.
- vs. Red Sox on the current roster (119 PA): 7.23 FIP with a .407 BA, .436 expected wOBA, .630 xSLG, 14.3 K% and 88.5 mph EV.
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Red Sox at Rays odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:50 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Red Sox +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Rays -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox -1.5 (+155) | Rays +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Red Sox 7, Rays 5
Money line (ML)
While “pitcher vs. batter” head-to-head splits aren’t the end-all of daily MLB handicapping, it’s hard to overlook how bad Yarbrough’s pitching peripherals are against active Boston batters in a large sample size.
Slight “LEAN” to the RED SOX (+100) for a tiny wager because I much prefer the Over in this contest and Boston lost five of its last seven visits to Tampa.
Also, we are seeing “reverse line movement” as 85% of the cash wagered has been on Boston but the line is moving toward Tampa Bay, according to Pregame.com. It’s always a red flag when the House makes the more popular side cheaper so tread carefully.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS since I don’t “like” Boston enough on the money line to lay it with the Red Sox -1.5 (+155). Furthermore, Boston is just 7-14 ATS as a road favorite and Tampa Bay is 9-5 ATS as a home underdog.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-110) for a half unit because the Over cashed in six of the last seven head-to-head meetings and the Rays are 10-5 O/U when Yarbrough gets the start.
However, we are also seeing “reverse line movement” as a vast majority of the market is betting the Over but the Under is becoming more expensive.
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