In a women’s strawweight bout on Saturday’s main card, Gloria de Paula and Cheyanne Buys meet at UFC on ESPN 28 at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. Below, we analyze the UFC on ESPN 28 de Paula vs. Buys odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The prelims start at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, with the main card starting at 9 p.m. ET.
de Paula enters the octagon with a 3.5-inch reach advantage against the switch-stance fighter. She made her UFC debut last time out, falling to Jinh Yu Frey March 13 by unanimous decision. She usually gets the judges involved, going the distance in four of her last five professional bouts. de Paula has three finishes in her career, all three of which were wins via KO/TKO, with no submission results.
Buys heads into this one looking to bounce back after a unanimous decision loss against Montserrat Conejo at UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Holland March 20 in her promotional debut. Her last six professional bouts have gone the distance since a KO/TKO win in her pro debut against Karla Hernandez March 9, 2018.
UFC on ESPN 28: de Paula vs. Buys: Odds and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:42 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): de Paula +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Buys -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -355 | Under +275)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -300 | No +240)
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UFC on ESPN 28 de Paula vs. Buys: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Records: de Paula 5-3-0 | Buys 5-2-0
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
There isn’t a lot of difference between the two fighters and therefore it’s a good idea to roll the dice on DE PAULA (+140) on the 2-way line. She’ll be looking to keep Buys at bay with that big reach advantage, and keeping her opposition at a distance will likely be appealing to the judges.
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Over/Under (O/U)
If you’re down with the underdog you also need to take DE PAULA ON POINTS (+235) for a chance to more than double up. Both of these fighters have a lack of stoppages during their fledgling careers and we should see the judges involved.
Betting Yes (-300): Will the fight go the distance? is a little too steep for my liking. If you’re able to wrap it into a parlay of some sort then it becomes tolerable.
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