The Seattle Mariners (55-48) travel Friday to Globe Life Field to start a three-game set with the Texas Rangers (36-66) at 8:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mariners vs. Rangers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Mariners lead 7-3.
Seattle has yet to officially announce its starter but it is expected to be RHP Logan Gilbert. Gilbert is 4-2 with a 3.81 ERA (56 2/3 IP, 24 ER), 1.04 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 across 12 starts in his rookie season.
- Last outing: No-decision with 2 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 5 K in Seattle’s 5-4 victory Saturday over the Oakland Athletics.
- Gilbert earned a no-decision in Seattle’s 5-4 victory over Texas July 2 with a stat line of 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 6 K.
LHP Kolby Allard takes the hill for the Rangers. Allard is 2-8 with a 4.71 ERA (72 2/3 IP, 38 ER), 1.16 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 10 starts and 10 relief appearances.
- Last outing: Loss, 7-3, with 4 IP, 7 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 5 K at the Houston Astros July 23.
- Allard is 0-1 this year against Seattle with a 3.86 ERA (7 IP, 3 ER), 4 H, 1 BB and 6 K in one start and one bullpen outing.
- vs. Mariners on the current roster (41 plate appearances): 7.33 FIP with a .256 BA, .375 wOBA, .540 expected slugging percentage, 24.4 K% and 89.7 mph exit velocity.
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Mariners at Rangers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:30 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Mariners -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Rangers +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
- Against the spread/ATS: Mariners -1.5 (+115) | Rangers +1.5 (-140)
- Over/Under: 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Mariners 4, Rangers 1
Money line (ML)
GIMME the MARINERS (-145) for 1 unit because I expect Gilbert to bounce back from his disappointing start against Oakland this past weekend.
Gilbert was the No. 14 overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft and the third-ranked prospect in Seattle’s loaded farm system. He’s faced a lot tougher lineups than Texas’s and has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in eight starts this season.
Furthermore, the Rangers just traded the only All-Star in their lineup in Joey Gallo, and they’ve been abysmal following the All-Star Game.
Texas’s lineup has the only negative WAR in the majors in the second half and the Rangers are the only team with less than 10 home runs in the second half as well, with just 4.
There’s no question that Texas has the worst lineup in MLB at the moment and this is an absolute get-right spot for Gilbert, and for Seattle whose back-to-back losses to the Houston Astros this week snapped a four-game win streak.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The Rangers have lost 16 of their previous 19 games and 15 of those losses were by at least 2 runs. Also, Seattle has covered its only game as a road favorite this season and Texas has the fifth-worst cover rate as a home dog at 17-18 ATS.
The wiser play is to just lay it with Seattle’s money line but I do not hate a light wager on the MARINERS -1.5 (+115).
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Under 8 (-110) because the Rangers are 13-31-1 O/U as a home underdog this season and Seattle’s lineup ranks in the bottom-10 against left-handed pitching in wRC+, wOBA and BB/K.
Also, the Mariners haven’t officially named a starter so at the moment “Logan’s bounce-back effort against the Rangers” is based on him actually getting out there. That being said, Seattle’s bullpen ranks second in WAR.
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