The Cincinnati Reds (51-48) and Chicago Cubs (49-51) match up Monday night at Wrigley Field, with first pitch coming at 8:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.
LHP Wade Miley is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds. He is 8-4 with a 2.72 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 through 102 2/3 IP spanning 17 starts.
Miley has been outstanding in July, with just 3 earned runs allowed over 21 innings through three starts. He allowed more than 2 runs in an outing just once since May 19 and has given up only 93 hits across 102 2/3 innings all season. In 13 career starts against the Cubs, Miley is 7-4 with a 4.29 ERA.
RHP Kyle Hendricks is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs. He is 12-4 with a 3.61 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 6.7 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 through 117 1/3 IP spanning 20 starts.
Hendricks has pitched well this month with a 2.19 ERA and 2-0 record through four starts. He has given up more than 2 runs in an outing just once since June 12, lowering his ERA from 4.59 to 3.61 in his last eight starts. He’s 6-5 with a 4.24 ERA in 20 career starts against the Reds.
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Reds at Cubs odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:45 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Reds +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Cubs -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Reds +1.5 (-190) | Cubs -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Reds 4, Cubs 3
Money line (ML)
The Reds are just 4-6 over their last 10 games, one game worse than the Cubs’ 5-5 record in the same span. Cincinnati won three of its last five games and two of the last three, though, and has scored the ninth-most runs per game in baseball.
With Miley rolling of late, I like the REDS (+105) to win on the road over the Cubs – a team they’ve won four in a row against.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The Reds are road underdogs tonight despite having the better offense and starter on the mound. It hurts that they won’t have OF Nick Castellanos in the lineup, but Cincinnati is still more than capable of beating Chicago.
Bet the REDS +1.5 (-190) with the run of insurance at Wrigley.
Over/Under (O/U)
In the last four head-to-head meetings, the Reds and Cubs combined for more than 5 total runs just once. They combined for 6 or fewer runs in six of their nine meetings this season.
Both pitchers have been throwing the ball well in recent weeks, which is why I like the UNDER 8.5 (-115).
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