The Los Angeles Angels (47-48) and Minnesota Twins (41-56) continue their four-game set at Target Field Friday with first pitch scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Angels vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Angels lead 3-1.
RHP Alex Cobb is L.A.’s projected starter. He is 7-3 with a 3.96 ERA (72 2/3 IP, 32 ER), 1.24 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 over 14 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 9-4, with 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 4 BB and 6 K against the Seattle Mariners Saturday.
- Cobb beat Minnesota May 20 with a stat line of 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 4 K in L.A.’s 7-1 victory.
- vs. Twins on the current roster (67 PA): 4.13 FIP with a .250 batting average (BA), .312 wOBA, .529 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 14.9 K% and 90.6 mph exit velocity (EV).
LHP J.A. Happ is on the mound for the Twins. He is 5-5 with a 6.15 ERA (89 1/3 IP, 61 ER), 1.50 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 across 17 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 7-0, with 7 IP, 7 ER, 11 H, 1 BB and 4 K Sunday at the Detroit Tigers.
- vs. Angels on the current roster (60 PA): 6.64 FIP with a .283 BA, .389 wOBA, .434 xSLG, 15.0 K% and 89.6 mph EV.
MLB betting offers/promotions
BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.
- Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
- RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!
Angels at Twins odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:25 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Angels -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Twins +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Against the spread/ATS: Angels -1.5 (+120) | Twins +1.5 (-145)
- Over/Under: 10 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Angels 8, Twins 5
Money line (ML)
I’m all about fading Happ and BETTING the ANGELS (-125) because Happ’s advanced pitching numbers paint an even grimmer picture than his basic numbers and this L.A. lineup hits lefties very well.
For instance, Happ grades in the 22nd percentile or worse in hard-hit rate, expected wOBA, xSLG, EV, barrel rate, whiff rate and K% and has the fifth-highest contact rate of all starters with a minimum of 50 IP. Also, the Angels rank in the top-five of baseball in wRC+, wOBA and OPS against lefties.
Finally, L.A. is getting “sharp” action, which has caused oddsmakers to move the Angels from slight underdogs on the opening line (-105) to favorites.
The “pros and Joes” are aligned on this one in the betting market, which isn’t typically an ideal spot to bet into, but the House moving the line in L.A.’s favor gives me confidence the ANGELS (-125) are the right side.
FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS since L.A. has been predictably terrible at covering the spread as a road favorite with a 5-11 ATS record and a minus-1.4 run line margin, since the Angels are consistently overvalued in the market because of their star power.
I’d take a stab at L.A.’s run line if it were north of +140 but the bullpen isn’t reliable enough to back the Angels on the run line.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 10 (-110) for a half unit since the total is taking “sharp” action toward the Over and these teams have a combined 21-9 O/U record when these starters are on the mound.
Angels-Twins opened with a 9.5-run total but the market is barreling into the Over, instigating a line move. In addition, these ball clubs have the two highest Over rates in the majors.
My hesitancy with backing the Over is because it’s an overly obvious play. The Twins sending DH Nelson Cruz to the Tampa Bay Rays Thursday also weakens their lineup.
PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!
Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]