The Chicago White Sox (58-38) meet the host Milwaukee Brewers (56-41) Friday at American Family Field to start a three-game interleague series. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the White Sox vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Tied 0-0.
RHP Lucas Giolito is Chicago’s projected starter. He is 8-6 with a 3.90 ERA (113 IP, 49 ER), 1.11 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 through 19 starts.
- Last outing: Complete-game win, 10-1, with 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB and 8 K Saturday against the Houston Astros.
- vs. Brewers on the current roster (36 PA): 5.79 FIP with a .194 batting average, .301 wOBA, .540 expected slugging percentage, 27.8 K% and 87.0 mph exit velocity.
RHP Freddy Peralta is on the mound for the Brewers. He is 7-3 with a 2.39 ERA (98 IP, 26 ER), 0.90 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 12.4 K/9 over 17 starts and one relief appearance.
- Last outing: No-decision with 5 IP, 3 ER, 2 H, 2 BB and 6 K in Milwaukee’s 4-3 loss to the Cincinnati Reds July 10.
- 2021 home stats: 4-1 with a 2.04 ERA (57 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 0.72 WHIP and 3.8 K/BB rate over nine starts and one relief outing.
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White Sox at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1 p.m. ET.
- Money line: White Sox +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Brewers -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: White Sox +1.5 (-200) | Brewers -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Brewers 3, White Sox 2
Money line (ML)
I’ll TAKE the BREWERS (-125) because we are seeing “reverse line movement” in the betting markets, the White Sox are only 23-21 on the road this year and Milwaukee is 46-31 when facing right-handed starters.
According to Pregame.com, more than three-quarters of the early action has been on Chicago’s money line but oddsmakers are moving the line toward Milwaukee.
You have to ask yourself, “Why would the House make the more popular side cheaper?” It feels like a trap, right? It’s a red flag in sports betting when oddsmakers move the line away from the team getting a majority of the bets.
Also, Giolito has been less effective on the road than at home this season. He has a 4.98 ERA and 1.30 WHIP on the road, compared to a 3.14 home ERA and 0.97 home WHIP. He also has a 3.8 K/BB rate on the road against a 4.2 K/BB rate at home.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because Milwaukee is just 17-24 ATS with a minus-1.1 run line margin this season as a home favorite and the Brewers covered the spread in just one of their nine interleague games and have the worst run line margin in the majors in interleague play.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (-105) for a half unit because both bullpens have elite talent and rank in the top-tier of relief units in several advanced pitching metrics.
Furthermore, Peralta has been lights at home and the NL’s no-DH rule will help him navigate an explosive White Sox lineup. In fact, Chicago is 2-5 O/U in interleague contests this season.
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