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One of the reasons to be bullish on the Cleveland Browns offense in 2021 is the strength of the guys up front. The Browns have heavily invested in the offensive line, and it’s paid off handsomely. One projection metric expects that to continue.
ESPN, in conjunction with Next Gen Stats, projected the pass protection win rate for all 32 NFL offensive lines. Line coach Bill Callahan’s unit in Cleveland topped the projections for 2021. The Browns are expected to win at a 65% rate, best in the league.
From ESPN analytics expect Seth Walder,
“From Myles Garrett to Odell Beckham Jr. to Denzel Ward to Nick Chubb, Cleveland’s roster is loaded. And that absolutely extends to the offensive line, which should give Baker Mayfield every opportunity to execute an efficient passing game. The talent is there, and so is the continuity: This group started a collective 73 games out of a possible 80 for Cleveland last season.”
The process ESPN used to create the projections is a little disingenuous. It automatically discredits players with less than two years of experience and also linemen who didn’t play a lot in 2020 due to injury or opting out for COVID purposes.
To achieve this we used a regression model that considers every projected starter’s individual pass block win rate over the past two seasons. Players who did not play in either or both seasons (including rookies) were assigned a below-average PBWR for their position, and anyone who failed to meet the qualifying threshold had their win rate regressed toward that below-average target.
However, those play into the hands of the Browns, who have four starters with long track records of strong play in the starting lineup. This projection metric helps bump up Jedrick Wills, who proved to be a pass-blocking specialist in his rookie season at left tackle, too.